• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Fat Tail Daily

Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

  • Menu
    • Commodities
      • Resources and Mining
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Iron Ore
      • Lithium
      • Silver
      • Graphite
      • Rare Earths
    • Technology
      • AI
      • Bitcoin
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Energy
      • Financial Technology
      • Bio Technology
    • Market Analysis
      • Latest ASX News
      • Dividend Shares
      • ETFs
      • Stocks and Bonds
    • Macro
      • Australian Economy
      • Central Banks
      • World Markets
    • Small Caps
    • More
      • Investment Guides
      • Premium Research
      • Editors
      • About
      • Contact Us
  • Latest
  • Fat Tail Series
  • About Us
Latest

Commodity Ignition and a Monopolist about to Run

Like 0

By Murray Dawes, Saturday, 12 October 2024

Chinese stimulus has put a rocket under Chinese stocks and many commodities. Will the good times continue?

I love walking the dog while listening to financial podcasts.

They can often be dry at the best of times. But when you’re chucking a ball and looking at the wattle trees swaying in the breeze it’s easier to digest.

The other morning I was listening to a podcast with five fund managers giving five shocking predictions for 2025.

Matthew Kidman, the Chief Investment Officer at Centennial Asset Management, gave my favourite speech. He said thematic investing will always underperform in the long-run.

We can all get caught up in the frenzy of excitement as different themes catch the markets attention.

But as we saw with future facing metals such as lithium over the past few years, it can be incredibly dangerous following the herd.

Finding businesses with a sustainable competitive advantage is where you find outperformance. That’s why I give you one to consider in the Closing Bell video below.

But if you are going to hunt for opportunities in the sectors that are running, you must have a solid plan and know how to manage risk effectively.

Most hot sectors end up turning into a bust at some point. If you can make money out of them while they are hot…and then take the money and run when they tip over…you can do well.

But that involves using a trader’s mentality.

I explain how I go about it in detail for you in my ‘six lessons’ whitepaper, which tracks my development as a trader from the Sydney Futures Exchange trading floor to today.

If you are ever scratching your head while watching my Closing Bell videos, be sure to read that document so you can learn the nuts of bolts of my trading rules.

I promise you will learn something that you can action right away.

In today’s Closing Bell I discuss a stock that has sustainable competitive advantages at the end of the video. But before then I focus on the conundrum of whether or not the Chinese stimulus will mark the beginning of a new bull market in China.

I set out the key levels above and below current prices in the Hang Seng (Hong Kong stock market). So you know what to look out for as things progress.

If the stimulus can stop the rot in the Chinese property market and the US continues to drop rates, there are a bunch of commodities that look ripe to continue heading higher.

I show you a few of them in the video below.

If you enjoy the video today why not click on the YouTube button and press ‘like’ on the video. It really helps me to get my videos in front of more people, so I appreciate it!

Continue to the Closing Bell

I’ve put together insights from my 30+ years of trading that will help you navigate market volatility and improve your performance.

I believe that the key to long-term investing success is a solid trading plan and a long-term mindset. I put this into action in my service Retirement Trader.

You can learn more about my approach by clicking here to get access to 30 years of trading knowledge.

Regards,

Murray Dawes Signature

Murray Dawes,
Editor, Retirement Trader and Fat Tail Microcaps

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Comments

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
guest
2 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Murray Dawes

Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio manager. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today, his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer-term-focused service Retirement Trader…and then applies the same system to the ultra-speculative end of the Australian market in Fat Tail Microcaps (this service is strictly limited and via invitation only).

Murray’s Premium Subscriptions

Publication logo
Fat Tail Microcaps
Publication logo
Retirement Trader

Latest Articles

  • Looking for the Catalyst: European Rearmament
    By James Cooper

    Every commodity cycle has a demand catalyst… James Cooper highlights one that few have paid attention to: conflict and military rearming. One of the primary drivers of higher metal prices. Read on to find out why this is important.

  • An oil price spike is in the offing now
    By Callum Newman

    Here’s one way to stop any speculative fever developing in the stock market. Get a big war going. That’s a real risk right now after the US attacks on Iran.

  • The Shopping Revolution No One Saw Coming
    By Charlie Ormond

    Amazon just sacrificed its most sacred business principle. You should be asking why.

Primary Sidebar

Latest Articles

  • Looking for the Catalyst: European Rearmament
  • An oil price spike is in the offing now
  • The Shopping Revolution No One Saw Coming
  • While Markets Snooze, This Microcap is Flying
  • Commodity Cycle: Are You Seeing It Now?

Footer

Fat Tail Daily Logo
YouTube
Facebook
x (formally twitter)
LinkedIn

About

Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.

Quick Links

Subscribe

About

FAQ

Terms and Conditions

Financial Services Guide

Privacy Policy

Get in Touch

Contact Us

Email: support@fattail.com.au

Phone: 1300 667 481

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

Fat Tail Logo

Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research

Copyright © 2025 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988