Commodity Cycle: Are You Seeing It Now?

Last week, I wrote about the importance of understanding the commodity cycle. This is playing out right in front of you.

We detailed the sudden return of silver and platinum.

Those two commodities, which have been in the doldrums for years, are suddenly and unexpectedly spiking to multi-year highs.

This week, another segment of the commodity market is pressing higher—oil and gas. This market has sat idle for years, devoid of investor attention!

The Israeli and Iranian conflict holds major concerns for global energy security. And this unloved sector is now finally gaining attention.

Why Oil is in Focus:

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints and plays a central role in global energy trade.

It connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean.

According to Signal Ocean, an analyst group that tracks global shipping, an estimated 20.9 million barrels of petroleum liquids transited through the strait (per day) in 2023.

That’s about 20% of global consumption and over a quarter of all seaborne oil exports!

So, a disruption here has the potential to cause much higher prices.

But oil’s recent move higher is typical of the broader commodity market.

This is not a set of coincidences.

Gold, silver, platinum, uranium and now oil. Explosive moves throughout the resource market.

This is precisely what a cyclical event looks like.

Resource markets have been starved of interest for years, but are finally gaining traction, all at once.

As trade wars, real wars, and geopolitical tensions rise, there’s a need to invest in real things. And that won’t stop with gold.

Meanwhile, Trump is doing all he can to pound the US dollar lower, another long-term bullish driver for resource markets.

Remember, we had a clear road sign of what lay ahead in 2025:

As gold prices broke into new all-time highs last year, I told you to be on alert.

Gold is the leader in the cycle. Meaning other commodities would soon follow.

And that’s taking place as we speak.

Commodities rarely move in isolation. They pivot up or down according to the cycle.

The underlying current that pushes everything higher, from energy, food, industrial, and precious metals.

Silver and platinum squeezed up earlier this month.

Now it’s oil and gas.

What comes next?

I can’t answer that with 100% certainty, but I can tell you that I’m watching copper closely right now…

It’s trading within a tight range, and is now only about 6% from its all-time highs:

If the copper market DOES break higher, expect it to spark a wave of speculation across resource markets.

That could come next week, or it might arrive next month.

Either way…

We’re close, so be prepared.

Gold rises on global tension—copper booms during growth. Grain prices inflate in periods of major drought.

But their upward trend is driven by the cycle.

Each commodity has vastly different demand and supply fundamentals, moving them higher or lower each week.

Yet they trend with the cycle.

A pragmatist will tell you this is all a coincidence.

But as I outlined last week:

“History has a pattern of commodities trading side-by-side, from peak to trough, from stagnation to inflation, from boom to bust.”

As investors, you must recognise that we’ve entered a period of upward momentum.

Not just gold but all physical assets.

If you want to learn how to get the most out of this cycle, join me here.

Until next time.

Regards,

James Cooper,
Editor, Mining: Phase One and Diggers and Drillers