• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Fat Tail Daily

Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

  • Menu
    • Commodities
      • Resources and Mining
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Iron Ore
      • Lithium
      • Silver
      • Graphite
      • Rare Earths
    • Technology
      • AI
      • Bitcoin
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Energy
      • Financial Technology
      • Bio Technology
    • Market Analysis
      • Latest ASX News
      • Dividend Shares
      • ETFs
      • Stocks and Bonds
    • Macro
      • Australian Economy
      • Central Banks
      • World Markets
    • Small Caps
    • More
      • Investment Guides
      • Premium Research
      • Editors
      • About
      • Contact Us
  • Latest
  • Fat Tail Series
  • About Us
Macro Australian Economy

Collins Foods Tumbles 18% on Falling Profits and a ‘Challenging Landscape’

Like 0

By Mahlia Stewart, Tuesday, 29 November 2022

Collins Foods [ASX:CKF], a restaurant operator linked to fast food chains KFC, Taco Bell, and Sizzler, reported a statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $11 million for the half-year, down from the $26.4 million reported in 2022.

Collins Foods [ASX:CKF], a restaurant operator linked to fast food chains KFC, Taco Bell, and Sizzler, reported a statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $11 million for the half-year, down from the $26.4 million reported in 2022.

The company touted continued sales momentum and increasing revenue; however, investors were evidently not otherwise impressed.

Shares plummeted by 17.83% by mid-morning, taking the restaurant manager’s stock to a decrease of more than 38% in the year so far. Compared to the market average, CFK is down 34%.

ASX:CKF stock chart

Source: tradingview.com

Collins Foods’ half-year financials

Today CKF provided results for the half-year that ended on 16 October, focusing on its sales momentum and drawing attention to the 15% growth in revenue versus the same time last year.

However, while revenue moved up from $534.2 million in HY22 to $614.3 million, the statutory NPAT dropped from $26.4 million in HY22 to $11 million in HY23.

CFK’s statutory EBITDA slipped slightly from $92.5 million to $93.4 million, and underlying EBITDA reportedly increased 0.5%, from $94.9 million to $95.4 million.

Net Operating cash flow totalled $69.1 million, down from HY22’s total of $72.3 million, as funding new restaurants, remodelling, acquisitions, and dividends increased.

The company did manage to bring about a Net Debt reduction of $6.5 million, lowering the company’s debts from $197.6 million to $191.1 million — the company’s net leverage ratio also decreased from 1.41 to 1.31 HY22.

CKF offered a fully franked interim dividend of 12 cents per ordinary share, the same as last year.

KFC Australia revenue was up 10.6% from $433.7 million in HY22, following the Uber Eats rollout in July.

KFC Europe revenue grew 32% from $84.7 million, though an 11.8% Underlying EBITDA margin was down, reflecting inflation costs, increased labour, utilities and supply chain issues.

Taco Bell revenue increased 42.6% from HY22’s $14.8 million. However, an $11.9 million impairment occurred through eight ‘underperforming’ restaurants.

Sizzler Asia delivered a 100% increase in royalty revenue to $1.8 million ($0.9 million in HY22).

CEO, Drew O’Malley, commented:

‘In a challenging consumer landscape, we’ve seen the brand strength of KFC on full display in the first half. Top-line growth has continued at an impressive rate, which has allowed us to mitigate some of the considerable margin headwinds experienced across the business while maintaining the brand’s value proposition.

‘The resilience of the QSR, and KFC’s brand strength in particular, allow us to be well-positioned to appeal to consumers regardless of economic conditions. Whilst we expect inflationary pressures to remain in the near-term, we continue to pursue our long-term growth agenda, and will continue to invest in new restaurant builds, as well as equipment, technology, and operational innovations to provide unmatched experiences for our customers and our people.’

CKF still looks to grow

O’Malley acknowledged inflationary headwinds and continued margin pressure expected to remain throughout FY23.

The company is committed to achieving margin recovery and plans 9–12 new restaurants for Australia in FY23 and three in the Netherlands. A long-term target of up to 130 net new restaurants has been set by 2031.

‘Operating in the resilient QSR sector, we believe we are well positioned to navigate the current challenging environment,’ stated O’Malley.

‘When combined with Collins Foods’ focus on operational excellence, supported by a highly capable and experienced management team, and the flexibility that comes with a healthy balance sheet, we retain our recipe for success to deliver sustainable earnings growth over the long term.’

The commodities boom

Did you know there are plenty of unheralded commodities investors are neglecting?

Fat Tail’s James Cooper — trained geologist and commodities expert — thinks the Australian resources sector is set to enter a new commodities boom brought on by the ‘Age of Scarcity’.

James is convinced ‘the gears are in motion for another multi-year boom in commodities.’

The best part is Australia (and ASX stocks) are in the optimal position for gaining in a big way.

You can read James’ report on the topic AND watch how he expects this to unfold here, for free.

Regards,

Mahlia Stewart,

For The Daily Reckoning Australia

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Mahlia Stewart

Mahlia’s Premium Subscriptions

Publication logo
Fat Tail Investment Research

Latest Articles

  • Australia ain’t the USA…and that’s great!
    By Callum Newman

    The outlook for Australia and the ASX are very different to the US and US shares. Here’s why…

  • The biggest infrastructure spending boom in history just kicked off
    By Nick Hubble

    Did governments screw up our gas supply? According to some sources in the industry, a rather similar thing happened to our electricity and water industry.

  • You Read it Here First: Great Asset Rotation Underway
    By James Cooper

    Media is swirling on the great asset transition taking place from the banks to the miners. But James Cooper made this prediction months ago in Mining Memo. Are you taking advantage?

Primary Sidebar

Latest Articles

  • Australia ain’t the USA…and that’s great!
  • The biggest infrastructure spending boom in history just kicked off
  • You Read it Here First: Great Asset Rotation Underway
  • The sector primed to fly into 2026
  • OpenAI and Microsoft Divorce?: Why this could be good for you

Footer

Fat Tail Daily Logo
YouTube
Facebook
x (formally twitter)
LinkedIn

About

Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.

Quick Links

Subscribe

About

FAQ

Terms and Conditions

Financial Services Guide

Privacy Policy

Get in Touch

Contact Us

Email: support@fattail.com.au

Phone: 1300 667 481

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

Fat Tail Logo

Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research

Copyright © 2025 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988