Circus Maximus

There’s no boom like a gold boom. And a gold boom happens when currency is debauched. MarketWatch:

Gold’s soaring so fast it’s topped Goldman target set only last week. Now a JPMorgan analyst plots path to $8,500. Analyst says households boosting allocations to the metal could send gold soaring

This comes even after the Fed refuses to lower interest rates. CBS:

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at its first FOMC meeting of 2026

Poor Donald Trump. Nothing seems to go his way. He’s hoping for lower rates, to cheapen the dollar and light a fire under the economy before the mid-term elections. But the fire is not under the economy; it’s under the gold price. And it signals not strength but weakness.

Already, in terms of gold, over the last year, the flower of American capitalism — the Dow stocks — have lost more than 30% of their value.

It sounds impossible. Because the Dow is still near an all-time high. What does tit mean? Is gold too expensive? Are stocks too cheap?

We don’t know either…but this is the trend we’ve been waiting for. And we’ll wait a little longer before we ‘pull the trigger’ and sell gold to buy stocks. But like a jittery ICE agent, we can barely control ourselves.

Meanwhile…more word from Baltimore.

“It’s still freezing cold. It’s going down to seven degrees tomorrow…and it’s supposed to snow again next week.”

“Well, it’s challenging here too,” we commiserated. “There were so many people drinking their pina coladas and martinis at the bar, we had to wait three minutes to get a cold beer.

“And this morning, a cloud — a cloud, dammit! — had the audacity to block the sun as we were enjoying our café con leche on the veranda. It quickly went away, but not before bombing our coffee with a single raindrop. Which just goes to show how rough things can get down here.”

But what is surprising about the winter weather in the US is that so many people appear to have been surprised by it, as if they forgot that winter happens. A woman quoted in a national newspaper:

“We didn’t expect it. And when you’re used to things – like electricity – it is very distressing when you don’t have it.”

Donald Trump insists that the weather has never been better. They just “don’t get it yet,” he says. What they don’t get, according to POTUS, is how great his economy really is.

Trouble is, people have eyes and ears. He may say it’s beautiful and balmy outside; but you still might get frostbite. MarketWatch:

‘Dollar tumbles to a four-year low as Trump claims it’s ‘doing great.’

A lower dollar means higher import prices. Leon Hadar:

Americans are experiencing economic pain in their daily lives. Households face between $1,300 and $2,100 in additional annual costs due to the combined effects of tariffs, deregulation, and persistent inflationary pressures. Unemployment has climbed to 4.6%, signaling a cooling labor market after years of post-pandemic expansion. Consumer sentiment continues to darken as families struggle with the cost of basic necessities.

Most damaging to Trump’s political standing is the public’s assessment of tariffs, his signature economic policy. A staggering 75% of Americans—including 56% of Republicans—believe tariffs are raising prices rather than protecting American workers. This represents a devastating repudiation of Trump’s core economic philosophy. When only 14% of Americans support imposing additional tariffs, the political foundation for Trump’s trade war has essentially collapsed.

Poor Mr. Trump claims that the economy is doing better than ever. And if not, it’s Joe Biden’s fault. But recent polls show that twice as many voters hold him, rather than Biden, responsible.

Digging further into the figures, most people think his policies contribute to job losses…and have raised health insurance costs. And they’re right. Jobs continued to disappear from manufacturing as his tariff program was rolled out. The US automobile industry, for example, lost 28,000 jobs last year. And tariffs were meant to close the trade gap; but the gap just opened wider than ever. Reuters:

Trade deficit widens by the most in nearly 34 years

The Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau reported that the trade deficit widened by 94.6%, the largest increase since March 1992, to $56.8 billion…

Consumer prices have continued to rise at least twice as fast as the Fed’s target. Food prices, for example, rose more in December than they had since 2022. Electricity rose 7% in 2025.

Poor Mr. Trump hopes he can overcome these problems with the old ‘bread and circuses’ technique. Distract the voters with circuses — Minneapolis, Greenland, Iran, et al. And bribe them with a barrage of giveaways before the mid-term elections — Trump Accounts, Warrior Dividends, Tariff Dividends, and a cap on credit card interest.

Stimmies for everyone! Perhaps he will take a page from fellow New Yorker, Zohran Mamdani’s winning playbook, with a nationwide rent control program…and free childcare too!

Stay tuned.