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Beware the Dead Cat Bounce

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By Murray Dawes, Saturday, 24 August 2024

Another shakeout is coming, but there are ways to play it.

Stocks have rapidly recovered after the recent crash in the Japanese Nikkei stock index. But there were lessons learned in the crash that investors need to be aware of.

In today’s Fat Tail Daily, Murray explains why the continued strength in the yen is a warning sign that all may not be well. He points out that the weakness in iron ore and oil is hinting that Chinese and US growth are on the cusp of more weakness.

This Monday, at 7pm, I’m holding a free online investment summit.

It’s called ‘How to Prepare for the Next Shakeout’.

If you haven’t registered for free yet, you can do so here.

But what do I mean by NEXT shakeout?

US and Australian stocks have rapidly bounced back to near all-time highs. The recent blood curdling selloff on the back of an unwind of Japanese yen carry trades is a distant memory.

But when you scratch the surface there are some worrying signs.

That’s why I am sitting down with Woody on Monday for a chat You can register your place to join us for free by clicking here.

We will go into detail about the recent mini-panic and why investors should keep it on their radar despite the rapid recovery in stock prices.

I hope you can join me for the chat on Monday evening where we talk about a ‘shopping list’ of potential buys if we see another shakeout. Including three very special plays I think you should buy if they become ‘cheapies’.

FREE: How to Prepare for the Next Shakeout
Monday at 7pm AEST

Corrections happen all the time. You just need to prepare for them and use them as an opportunity, rather than freaking out each time they occur.

The US dollar is coming under serious selling pressure and hasn’t bounced with stocks over the past few weeks. Put another way, the Japanese yen has remained strong despite the bounce in stocks.

It was a surge in the yen that caused the recent panic selling. This occurred via an unwind of the ‘carry trade’. If the yen continues to strengthen we may see more volatility in stocks ahead.

We got a hint about what the big money has been doing over the past year when those forced unwinds happened.

It told us that large traders were borrowing cheaply in yen and investing in Magnificent 7 stocks in the US.

That means much of the rally in those stocks over the past year could be based on the divergence between Japanese and US interest rates.

With US growth faltering and Japanese inflation still bubbling away, the convergence of Japanese and US rates could still be a catalyst for some serious market volatility going forward.

Elsewhere, iron ore and oil are coming under serious selling pressure and could have a lot further to fall.

That would signal Chinese property woes are getting worse, and that US growth may be slowing faster than most expect.

After the huge adjustment to US employment data recently that saw over 800,000 jobs disappear from past data, the case is growing that US growth could surprise to the downside going forward.

So investors should keep some powder dry to enter long-term bullish themes if we see volatility pick up again over the next few months.

That is the topic we cover in detail next Monday so don’t forget to sign up for a reminder here.

Regards,

Murray Dawes Signature

Murray Dawes,
Editor, Retirement Trader and Fat Tail Microcaps

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Murray Dawes

Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio manager. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today, his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer-term-focused service Retirement Trader…and then applies the same system to the ultra-speculative end of the Australian market in Fat Tail Microcaps (this service is strictly limited and via invitation only).

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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