ASX About to Crack?

By Murray Dawes, Friday, 14 November 2025

In today’s Closing Bell, we look at the ASX 200’s sudden slide, why key support is so important here, and how a false break could turn into a near 10% correction into Christmas. I also touch on the growing cracks in weaker AI names, such as Oracle and Meta, and what that might mean for the broader market. We finish on a positive note with a brief look at the lithium stocks that are still running. Hit play to see the levels and charts I’m watching now.

Last week, I highlighted that the ASX 200 had confirmed weekly bearish divergence, which pointed to turbulence ahead.

Today, the ASX 200 is down over 100 points and resting on key support, with the weekly trend about to turn down.

There is a case to be made that if current levels can’t hold, we could be on the cusp of a near 10% drop.

I bang on about false breaks all the time because they happen far more often than breakouts.

And if you understand how they take shape, you can make money out of them. Or at the very least, avoid losing your shirt.

There are some signs of weakness in the US, with investors balking at investment plans of the weakest AI market darlings.

Oracle [NYSE:ORCL] had its debt downgraded to sell by Barclays during the week. Meta Platforms [NASDAQ:META] has been belted since they announced that their AI investing will continue to rise, despite no product to show for it.

Oracle is down 37% from its peak just a couple of months ago. Meta is down 24%, but their chart is looking ominous for more downside.

The strongest AI players still appear strong, but it will be interesting to see how they behave if Oracle and Meta continue to slide.

Today’s Closing Bell zeros in on the gathering storm clouds and explains why the ASX 200 could surprise to the downside as we head towards Christmas.

We finish up with a look at one of the brightest corners of the market, with lithium stocks continuing to run.

So get stuck into today’s closing Bell video below and don’t forget to give us a ‘like’ on YouTube!

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Retirement Trader and International Stock Trader

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio manager. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today, his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer-term-focused service Retirement Trader…and then applies the same system to the ultra-speculative end of the Australian market in Fat Tail Microcaps (this service is strictly limited and via invitation only).

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.