• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Fat Tail Daily

Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

  • Menu
    • Commodities
      • Resources and Mining
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Iron Ore
      • Lithium
      • Silver
      • Graphite
      • Rare Earths
    • Technology
      • AI
      • Bitcoin
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Energy
      • Financial Technology
      • Bio Technology
    • Market Analysis
      • Latest ASX News
      • Dividend Shares
      • ETFs
      • Stocks and Bonds
    • Macro
      • Australian Economy
      • Central Banks
      • World Markets
    • Small Caps
    • More
      • Investment Guides
      • Premium Research
      • Editors
      • About
      • Contact Us
  • Latest
  • Fat Tail Series
  • About Us
Latest

Why I Reckon George Soros Would Back This Trade Today

Like 0

By Callum Newman, Wednesday, 06 September 2023

In the words of George Soros — one of the greatest speculators of all time — we must ‘Find the narrative whose premise is false…and bet against it’. But where should we look? You want to hear about all the exciting things going on lithium, rare earths, and copper. However, here’s the reality. Iron ore is barnstorming its way towards US$120 a tonne…against all expectations. Read on…
  1. ‘Find the narrative whose premise is false…and bet against it.’

All hail the great words of George Soros, one of the greatest speculators of all time.

But where should I look, Mr Soros?

Feel free to take your own guess, but here’s mine: iron ore stocks.

I know, I know. You want to hear about all the exciting things going on in lithium, rare earths, and copper.

Me too! Those are off the boil — for now.

However, here’s the reality. Iron ore is barnstorming its way towards US$120 a tonne…against all expectations.

After all, isn’t Chinese property supposed to be collapsing? Isn’t iron ore in a structural decline?

Hee-hee! That’s the vibe you might get from reading the press and commentary.

I think we have our false premise, a la Mr Soros…because here’s the chart of iron ore lately:


iron ore stock chart

Source: X

[Click to open in a new window]

Goodness gracious me, that’s what I like to see.

What I love about this is that iron ore stocks took a beating while the market agonised over the outlook for China.

I see related stocks trading cheaply…but currently minting a fortune.

This is why one of the five recommended stocks in my latest report is an iron ore miner.

I was perfectly happy to put this on the record. I’ve seen this rodeo before. Back in 2021, everyone got all bearish on China and iron ore…and it went on to spike more than $200 a tonne.

I’m not going to say that will happen again. All I know is I got some ripping trades away at that time for subscribers. I’m ready to go dancing again.

Here’s another kicker. Iron ore companies sell in US dollars. That means you get a kick from the Aussie dollar being down in the dumps too when it comes to potential dividends.

You see…this is the thing about iron ore.

It doesn’t have the fancy story that investors find so alluring about rare earths and lithium and all the rest of it.

What the industry has is cold, hard cash.

A good chunk of iron ore miners on the ASX are producing already. As soon as iron ore goes up, the dollars going into their account do the same thing.

You can’t say that about many mining juniors. Often they’re months, in fact, years, from any cash flow.

That recommendation I mentioned in my latest report banked nearly $90 million in cash flow last quarter. That was when iron ore was relatively weak.

How much will they make this quarter? I can’t wait to find out — or see how big the dividend they’re planning is going to be.

See for yourself here my favourite way of playing this.

  1. Why is iron ore going up, anyway?

Don’t ask me, I’m just a humble small-cap analyst.

One man who should have a pretty good idea is the head of iron ore operations at Vale — the biggest iron ore miner in the world.

He just released a presentation. Here’s the key slide:


steel demand projections

Source: Market Watch

[Click to open in a new window]

There was also a report released recently, that said in part:

‘The one commodity that should be getting hammered by China’s worsening property crisis is actually doing rather well…

‘“Iron ore is still very resilient for an environment like this, and I think Chinese demand is playing a role in that,” said Hao Hong, chief economist at Grow Investment Group. It shows parts of the economy, outside the property sector, are relatively healthy, he said.’

I’m not saying this is an easy ride, by the way. Iron ore is a volatile beast…and loves nothing more than spooking everyone…before it goes on an unexpected rally.

If that’s not your style, feel free to give it a miss. But this volatility sure does throw up some great trading opportunities.

And let me tell you something about the broader market right now. There ain’t much moving elsewhere. The only other sector I’ve seen with any spark lately is uranium.

However, there’s a consensus there I find unappealing, even if it’s probably true. I’m a contrarian by nature. Running with the herd is against my instincts, generally speaking.

Decide what works for you. But I’m following George Soros’s advice.

Will you take the same bet?

Best wishes,

Callum Newman Signature

Callum Newman,
Editor, Money Morning

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Callum Newman

Callum Newman is a real student of the markets. He’s been studying, writing about, and investing for more than 15 years. Between 2014 and 2016, he was mentored by the preeminent economist and author Phillip J Anderson. In 2015, he created The Newman Show Podcast, tapping into his network of contacts, including investing legend Jim Rogers, plus best-selling authors Jim Rickards, George Friedman, and Richard Maybury. He also launched Money Morning Trader, the popular service profiling the hottest stocks on the ASX each trading day.

Today, he helms the ultra-fast-paced stock trading service Small-Cap Systems and small-cap advisory Australian Small-Cap Investigator.

Callum’s Premium Subscriptions

Publication logo
James Altucher’s Investment Network Australia
Publication logo
Australian Small-Cap Investigator
Publication logo
Small-Cap Systems

Latest Articles

  • The trade war is over. Tax cut chaos is next.
    By Nick Hubble

    Trump isn’t just imposing tariffs. He also wants to cut taxes. If the tariff tantrum gave us a taste for how he’ll go negotiate, hold on tight!

  • The Untold Tariff Story
    By Callum Newman

    The real tariff story isn't what you're reading in the headlines. It's not about short-term market volatility or quarterly earnings impacts. The true story – and the massive investment opportunity – is about the fundamental restructuring of American manufacturing that's now underway. Trump's tariffs are accelerating AI adoption in American industry. Today, I want to show you the companies that are emerging as the backbone of this transformation.

  • The Big Payday: Chasing Profits in Risky Places
    By James Cooper

    Geologist, James Cooper, draws on a key metric he uses to understand the real-time position in the commodity cycle. Read on to find out more.

Primary Sidebar

Latest Articles

  • The trade war is over. Tax cut chaos is next.
  • The Untold Tariff Story
  • The Big Payday: Chasing Profits in Risky Places
  • China’s plan to pop the AI bubble and sink Mag7 for good
  • The latest Closing Bell is available now

Footer

Fat Tail Daily Logo
YouTube
Facebook
x (formally twitter)
LinkedIn

About

Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.

Quick Links

Subscribe

About

FAQ

Terms and Conditions

Financial Services Guide

Privacy Policy

Get in Touch

Contact Us

Email: support@fattail.com.au

Phone: 1300 667 481

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

Fat Tail Logo

Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research

Copyright © 2025 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988