Last week saw the All Ords crack the 5,618-point mark, moving up to a high of 5,721 on Thursday before closing at 5,605 at end of trade on Friday. A healthy sign for the All Ords, and it will be interesting to see if it can remain above its previous high of 5,618 this coming week.
The week ahead
With the All Ords moving up last week to break above 5,618 points and closing just below this level, the signs are there for a positive week ahead. The All Ords has mostly moved sideways since the end of March. The level of 5,800 points is still yet to be broken, until then it is a bit difficult to gauge which direction the market will take in the short- to medium-term future.
Source: Optuma
A closer look
Last week saw some encouraging moves in the sectors, with Information Technology up 5.72% and Materials up 6.11%. On the downside, Health and Utilities fell back 2.42 and 2.34%.
Looking into the stocks, Super Retail Group Ltd [ASX:SUL] and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd [ASX:FMG] both saw positive weeks, up 11.54% and 8.21%, respectively.
Ausnet Services Ltd [ASX:AST] and CSL Ltd [ASX:AST] fell back during the week, declining 6.34% and 5.49%.
Overall, the All Ords paints a picture of less volatility in the market at present.
Where the Aussie share market is going from here…
Are we going back up or is this a false dawn? There is an old saying in investing that ‘even a dead cat will bounce if it falls fast enough and far enough’.
The dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery of asset prices in an overall decline, in short, a small rally. While a somewhat crude explanation, it is vivid imagery of what might take place in the All Ords. Are we seeing a bounce right now or is this the recovery?
Source: Optuma
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Moving forward
The price broke through 5,618 points last week, as encouraging as that is, 5,800 still looms ahead. To consider the All Ords strong, in my opinion, this is the next natural level the price must pass through, until this can be achieved, I still hold my cautious outlook. If the dreaded ‘dead cat bounce’ were to unfold, sending the price south, then levels of 5,141 and 4,902 may come into focus.
Punchline — there is a lot of resistance ahead and markets may move sideways or down once they get up to the 5,800 level.
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Regards,
Carl Wittkopp,
For Money Morning
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