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Closing Bell

The Pros Got Crushed… What That Means for You

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By Murray Dawes, Friday, 17 April 2026

Markets have just ripped higher, with the S&P 500 surging 15% in less than two weeks. But beneath the surface, things aren’t nearly as strong as they look.

When the smartest people in the room are down 30% since the start of the year, you realise markets have entered a new phase.

Australian hedge fund performance

Article image

Source: The Australian Financial Review

From the results above, it appears their investment strategy involved piggybacking all the other hedge funds into software stocks and riding them higher without proper risk management.

Looks like bonus cheques this year could be a little light.

So even though we’ve just witnessed an almighty rally, with the S&P 500 up an astonishing 15% in 11 days, there are still areas of the market that are struggling.

Personally, I don’t trust this run-up and think it looks like a classic short squeeze.

And yet I have sent a recommendation to buy a couple of stocks recently in my Retirement Trader service. Some areas of the market look like a buy while others don’t.

Beaten-up software stocks are actually looking ready to run with some strong buying coming into them over the last week.

Sifting through the wreckage to find the diamonds has been my job over the last few months. I am preparing to go into a bunch of software stocks that are least likely to be disrupted by AI.

But make no mistake, the last six months have been tricky to navigate. So if you have been knocked around a bit, you’re not alone. As long as you haven’t dusted 30% of your capital like the masters of the universe above, you should be able to carry on.

Charlie and I consider the vertical rally in US stocks and the underperformance in Australia, then have a look at the nascent rally in software stocks.

We also look at the accelerating run in lithium, pointing out one that’s bringing a mothballed mine back into production shortly.

To finish off, we survey the incredibly strong charts in the robotics sector. A major breakout looks in the offing.

If you are enjoying these Closing Bell videos and would like to get together with me each and every week to run the ruler over your best ideas and get my feedback, make sure you check out my new service, ‘Murray’s Trading Room’.

For a few hundred bucks, you get an experienced trader in your corner, showing you the ropes and how to think like a trader as you plan out your investments.

I will reveal more of the trading model than I do in ‘Closing Bell’ videos, and you will be able to join live or view recordings at your leisure.

So have a read about it here, and I really hope you want to take our relationship to the next level.

YouTube player

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Retirement Trader, International Stock Trader and
Murray’s Trading Room

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Murray Dawes

Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio manager. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today, his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer-term-focused service Retirement Trader…and then applies the same system to the ultra-speculative end of the Australian market in Fat Tail Microcaps (this service is strictly limited and via invitation only).

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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