A few days ago, I joined the two renegade economists, Dr Cameron Murray and Leith van Onselen, to bust a few myths about the current economic environment.
I also got their insights into the cycle as we transit through the final few years to the peak in 2026.
Both Cameron and Leith write their own independent narratives on the real estate market and macro economy — with information that stands refreshingly apart from the BS shared in the mainstream media.
After all, over the last few weeks, we’ve seen the usual flip-flop forecasts from the major banks, changing direction as often as Melbourne’s weather. (I wrote more about that here.)
There’s also been endless outrage over rising rents from all sides of politics. Yet nothing is mentioned to criticise the demand side of the equation as we see record numbers of immigrants flood into cities that have almost no dwellings available for lease.
Obviously, rents continue to rocket northwards. This pulled the trigger for yet another government inquiry to address the issue — ‘The Worsening Rental Crisis in Australia’.
However, let’s not forget that there have been numerous inquiries made into housing affordability over the years.
- The First Home Ownership Inquiry by the Productivity Commission (2004)
- The Senate Select Committee inquiry into Housing Affordability in Australia (2008)
- The Inquiry into Affordable Housing by the Senate Economics References Committee (2014)
- The Inquiry into Home Ownership by the Standing Committee on Economics (2015)
- Affordable Housing Working Group (2017)
Just to name a few!
No doubt, this inquiry will go the way of all previous inquiries — plenty of recommendations tabled, but nothing done to change the status of an economy bent toward speculation on rising land values.
This is why we have a cycle.
As Cameron points out in his latest Substack, everything we see today needs to be taken into historical context if we really want to view the picture clearly. The patterns are a repeat of the past:
‘The following patterns are evident.
- ‘Most of the time since 1980 rental prices have increased slower than prices for other goods and services in the CPI, but with three major cyclical adjustment periods in the late 1980s, the late 1990s, and 2006 to 2015.
- ‘From 2015 to mid-2023, rental prices have risen slower than prices for other consumer goods and services.
- ‘Rent as a share of income for renter households has been flat since 1995.
‘Simply put, there is no evidence in the Figure 2 charts of an abnormal “rental crisis” in recent years, only of normal rental markets with cyclical patterns reflecting macroeconomic conditions…’
You can read more on that here.
And that’s what the interview I’m sharing today is all about — busting the myths so you can see the landscape with clarity.
It’s going to help you to position yourself in the markets, for the final two years of the cycle.
I hope you enjoy the chat as much as I did!
Best wishes,
 |
Catherine Cashmore,
Editor, Land Cycle Investor
Comments