The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part III]

Recently, I was listening to an interview with geopolitical analyst, Pippa Malmgren.

She’s the daughter of Harald Malmgren, who served as an advisor to several US Presidents. And now she’s following in he’s footsteps.

Pippa recently put forward an interesting idea…

Something that could have major implications for today’s energy market.

In fact, it aligns closely to what I’ve been detailing in our previous updates…

Malmgren recently outlined a prediction that centres on a growing alliance forming between Russia and the US.

Now, that’s certainly not conventional thinking.

In recent years, China has aligned closely with Russia. And that’s only strengthened since the war in Ukraine kicked off.

But here’s how Malmgren describes the potential power play that’s unfolding…

She believes the international system is a shifting triangle centred on three key players: the US, China, and Russia.

And we could be on the edge of a major rebalancing among these three superpowers.

One key reason for that: Malmgren believes the China-Russia relationship is becoming unbalanced.

What does she mean?

Well, Russia has been isolated from the global economy in its war with Ukraine. And that means it has been forced to lean heavily on China.

As an oil and gas-dependent nation, this has suited China very well.

But since the conflict began, Malmgren believes Beijing has gained de facto control over large areas of Russian territory and resources.

In her eyes, she believes Russia has ‘given up’ its autonomy to China.

In simple terms, Russia has become a subordinate that fuels China’s thirst for natural resources, especially oil and gas.

So, this is where the shifting triangle that Malmgren highlights could have critical implications for the global energy market, and it’s something I’ve been detailing in recent updates…

You see, three countries control almost half of the world’s oil and gas supply.

The US is the world’s largest producer by volume.

That’s followed by Saudi Arabia, then Russia.

However, these three powerbrokers remain politically, economically, and ideologically separated.

That fragmentation favours energy-disadvantaged regions, like China and Europe.

But what if this condition begins to shift, where the major oil producers start to see common ground…

The Emergence of the American Oil Cartel

While the US and Russia may not share many common values, they do share one major link: both hold vast oil and gas reserves.

Alone, they can’t inflict a major impact on the global energy market.

But as an alliance, that situation could change dramatically, giving Russia far more leverage in its relationship with China.

Same too, for the US.

Meanwhile, the US is busily securing its oil and gas footprint in strategic ‘second-tier’ locations, like Venezuela.

But at the same time limiting the number of crude import locations by constricting flow from the Middle East.

So, what happens if the US and its subsidiary oil vestiges, like Venezuela and other second-tier oil players, come under its web?

It will certainly hold significant bargaining chips over energy-dependent regions, chiefly Europe and Asia.

But combine that with a potential alliance with Russia, and you have one frighteningly potent oil cartel.

Could it actually happen?

That’s what we’ll explore in our final update of this series.

Stay tuned!