• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Fat Tail Daily

Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

  • Menu
    • Commodities
      • Resources and Mining
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Iron Ore
      • Lithium
      • Silver
      • Graphite
      • Rare Earths
    • Technology
      • AI
      • Bitcoin
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Energy
      • Financial Technology
      • Bio Technology
    • Market Analysis
      • Latest ASX News
      • Dividend Shares
      • ETFs
      • Stocks and Bonds
    • Macro
      • Australian Economy
      • Central Banks
      • World Markets
    • Small Caps
    • More
      • Investment Guides
      • Premium Research
      • Editors
      • About
      • Contact Us
  • Latest
  • Fat Tail Series
  • About Us
Macro Australian Economy

The Cracks in the Property Market You Want to Avoid

Like 0

By Catherine Cashmore, Thursday, 14 October 2021

‘I have a newly built property bought off-the-plan here in Melbourne, covered under 7-year builders-warranty...

Another day, another story of an apartment building on the verge of collapse.

This time, a 10-storey tower in Canterbury, NSW.

A recent assessment from structural engineers leaked to the Herald Sun says the tower is a ‘major risk’ to occupants.

A collapse would lead to ‘catastrophic damage’ to two other apartment buildings nearby. There are already signs of heavy cracking evident.

The horror story for residents echoes Sydney’s Mascot and Opal Towers back in 2018/19.

Both towers were evacuated for similar reasons. Investors losing everything. Residents left homeless with no support.

One of the biggest beneficiaries of budget spending over COVID — state and federal combined — has been the big construction sector.

Whether house and land packages or off-the-plan apartments — we’ve already seen land values soar in new estates as ‘buyers pounce on HomeBuilder grants.’

But chasing after any newly-built property poses a massive risk for investors.

The grants that bribe home buyers into purchasing dodgy, underperforming long-term investments are just not worth it.

The problems are not limited to Sydney — or apartments.

Last year I had a letter from a reader who had fallen prey to this. He’d purchased a brand-new townhouse.

‘I have a newly built property bought off-the-plan here in Melbourne, covered under 7-year builders-warranty…

‘Yet all year, I have been struggling with extreme challenges to get them to attend to fix maintenance issues like a leaking-roof, clothes rack bedroom fell out, water-tank leaking etc

‘When paying a lot money for new-build over established I want to look after the property and last a long time (I bought new, to avoid maintenance and peace of mind yet I have had nothing but trouble with this and this builder company) etc

‘Not sure how to get them to attend to fix the maintenance-issues once and for all?

‘It is covered under the builders-warranty of off-the-plan- purchases yet they seem to not care at all?’

The truth is, of course, they don’t care.

As with everything else concerning the development sector, the insurance, although mandatory in Victoria, is not worth the paper it is written on.

There are so many loopholes in it. In my experience, getting money for repairs is excessively difficult to completely impossible.

How to Survive Australia’s Biggest Recession in 90 Years. Download your free report and learn more.

It is only paid out as a last resort.

When the builder dies, disappears, or is made insolvent.

Then there’s the issue of oversupply — particularly in Melbourne.

After months of draconian lockdowns, oppressive vaccine mandates on the horizon, numerous residents exiting the city, no international students flying in, and an unfolding apartment apocalypse as city vacancy rates hit record levels…it’s hard for anyone to put a date on when things will improve.

Not in the short term, that’s for sure.

Especially for big apartment developers.

This sector is in trouble.

It’s one reason state governments have pushed to get international students back to Australia ahead of the queue.

Who else is going to occupy the high-rise vacant towers and the new ones under construction?

Earlier this month, my good mate Pete Wargent over at BuyersBuyers put together a list of ‘danger zone’ suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne.

The suburbs where apartments risk being massively oversupplied.

A warning for investors to steer clear.

Take a look:


Top Danger zone Suburbs in Melbourne

[Click to open in a new window]


Top Danger zone Suburbs in Melbourne

Source: BuyersBuyers

[Click to open in a new window]

Don’t get me wrong here.

There’s a lot of wealth to be made from property — especially if you have insider knowledge on how to time the cycle. As well as information on exactly what, where, and when to buy.

We show exactly how you can do this through stocks and property investments at Cycles, Trends & Forecasts.

For now, however, I’ll repeat the lesson again.

If you want to make money from investing in the property market — don’t buy brand-new houses or apartments.

The wealthy don’t get rich from owning buildings.

They get rich from owning land.

Best wishes,

Catherine Cashmore Signature

Catherine Cashmore,
Editor, The Daily Reckoning Australia

PS: Australian real estate expert, Catherine Cashmore, reveals why she thinks we could see the biggest property boom of our lifetimes — over the next five years. Click here to learn more.

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Catherine Cashmore

Catherine’s Premium Subscriptions

Publication logo
Fat Tail Investment Research

Latest Articles

  • Lion Clock says buy now for the big pay off later
    By Callum Newman

    Now is the time to be investing and following into this sector. According to the Lion investment clock, now’s the time to scoop up what you can and surf the rising liquidity wave.

  • Cashflow Gems: Focus on Mining Juniors That Own the Golden Goose
    By James Cooper

    Exploration success hinges on continuous drilling, and self-funding juniors have the edge. Discover how these companies leverage cash flow to advance projects without pausing, while their cash-strapped competitors face hibernation.

  • Tick, tock: there’s a boom brewing in one sector…
    By Callum Newman

    All the old hands say you’re supposed to buy resources when they’re down in the dumps. That’s the theory. It’s the timing that’s the bitch. Here’s some help with that…

Primary Sidebar

Latest Articles

  • Lion Clock says buy now for the big pay off later
  • Cashflow Gems: Focus on Mining Juniors That Own the Golden Goose
  • Tick, tock: there’s a boom brewing in one sector…
  • Buy oil when there’s peace in the streets
  • Vicuña: The Greatest Mineral Discovery of Our Lifetime

Footer

Fat Tail Daily Logo
YouTube
Facebook
x (formally twitter)
LinkedIn

About

Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.

Quick Links

Subscribe

About

FAQ

Terms and Conditions

Financial Services Guide

Privacy Policy

Get in Touch

Contact Us

Email: support@fattail.com.au

Phone: 1300 667 481

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

Fat Tail Logo

Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research

Copyright © 2025 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988