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Market Analysis Latest ASX News

Synlait Milk [ASX:SM1] Shares Tumble 5% On Fallen Profits

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By Mahlia Stewart, Monday, 27 March 2023

NZ dairy product corporation Synlait has reported an 83% drop in NPAT, the company blaming inflation, higher costs, technical issues, and lower sales.

Milk and dairy nutrition corporation Synlait Milk [ASX:SM1] has disappointed its shareholders today by posting a fall of 83% in net profit after tax, reaching NZ$4.8 million (A$4.9 million) for the six months ending 31 January.

With the group’s full-year profit guidance having been set around $15–25 million, investors may be left wondering if this is now a possible goal, with half the year already much lower than expected.

SM1’s share price tumbled 5% in the early afternoon, trading for $2.13 at the time of writing.

In the last week alone, the milk and dairy manufacturer’s share price has decreased by more than 20%.

Year-to-date, the SM1 share price has dropped 36%:

ASX:SM1 Synlait Milk Stock Chart News 2023

Source: tradingview.com

 

First-half profit takes a sharp decline for Synlait

The dairy company has presented a pointed decline in first-half profit, with lower sales volumes and some technical issues cropping up in the group’s planning systems.

Not helping matters is the continued higher inflation costs ballooning the company’s expenses.

The group’s main financial highlights compared with 1H2022:

  • Group revenue took a 3% deficit totalling NZ$769.8 million
  • Earnings before interest taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) toppled 25%, with NZ$51.5 million earned
  • Adjusted EBITDA went down 5% to NZ$55 million
  • Net profit after tax (NPAT) came to NZ$4.8 million after falling 83%
  • Adjusted NPAT was down 43%, to NZ$8.9 million
  • The group’s net debt climbed 32% to NZ$518.6 million
  • Forecast base milk price for 2022/23 $8.50 per kilo of milk solids

The above results include a gain of NZ$11.9 million from its sale of leaseback for property in Auckland.

Chief Executive of Synlait, Grant Watson, put the lower results down to a 28% fall in sales volumes, while problems with the group’s new software system, SAP, have also been causing a fair share of supply disruptions.

This has had a significant impact on the group’s ability to release and ship products to its customers over the half year.

These disruptions nearly halved sales volumes for the first four months of fiscal 2023, beating up the group’s profit margins.

Lack of operational stability and cost challenges have had a huge impact on the group’s performance, with a range of economic and climatic factors limiting operations.

Nevertheless, Mr Watson assured shareholders the group is focused on delivering better quality execution:

‘We have aligned our organisation structure to our refreshed strategy, and capability and accountability are lifting. While our full financial recovery will take longer than planned momentum is building.’

 

What’s next for Synlait?

SM1 has forecast profit between NZ$15 million to NZ$25 million for the full year. This may be difficult, with the year’s first half having lower-than-expected returns.

However, Watson refused to be beaten down by the most recent results, stating the group’s SAP systems are now working better, and exports of ingredients are sliding back into normalcy.

He said the group is benefiting from a better mix of products, growing its advanced nutrition and consumer operations, and tracking along with food services.

The group continues to diversify products and consumers so that it will not be so heavily dependent on its offtake partner, A2 Milk.

Synlait’s two-year recovery is now tracking to three years, and the group’s full financial recovery is taking longer than initially anticipated.

 

Australia’s evolving economy

The global supply chain is twisting.

Australian trade isn’t what it once was.

The change is all around us, but what is it all pointing to?

Jim Rickards, the financial and geopolitical analyst, has pieced certain puzzle pieces together.

He says, ‘no one is talking about how this could end the Australian economy as we know it’, as soon as within the next 12 months.

Learning the patterns and getting ready for change could put you ahead of the curve.

If you want to know more about the biggest geoeconomic shift of our lifetime, click here.

 

Regards,

Mahlia Stewart,

For Money Morning

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Mahlia Stewart

Mahlia’s Premium Subscriptions

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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