Most Holy Spirit, who didst brood
upon the chaos dark and rude,
and bid its angry tumult cease,
and give, for wild confusion, peace:
O hear us when we cry to thee
for those in peril on the sea.
—Traditional Hymn
Bon Voyage!
A man in a wheelchair, pushed by his gray-haired wife, rolled into the dining hall. Already, there were hundreds of people, similarly aged, having dinner. The staff — almost all from the Philippines, rushed from one table to another.
We’re on our way back to the Old Country… back to Ireland, that is.
And we’re headed back the old way… on the sea instead of in the air.
The Queen Mary was leaving New York at a convenient time, so we signed on.
Here’s the view as we cast off… looking out from the Brooklyn Maritime Terminal.
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| Source: Bill Bonner |
You arrive at the terminal. Luggage handlers quickly take your bags while you join a long line of people waiting to go through security and check-in. This is not a luxury experience. Maybe it would be different if we had signed up for one of the upper-deck suites. But they were sold out…so we waited in line.
Once aboard, the atmosphere is not exactly high-tone either. The décor is vaguely art deco…but a little garish, like Las Vegas, with vivid colors and Trump-style, oversized columns and staircases. The cabins (at $2,200) are small, but comfortable. The price seems too low…for an 8-day cruise. But you soon realize that there are many ways to spend money aboard.
The main restaurant is a huge eatery…where you are seated at large tables with other sojourners. Some people like the communal approach. They make friends and enjoy the company, organizing themselves for drinks or card games later.
Your editor, however, makes a poor dinner companion. Others are rarely interested in the decline of the late, degenerate empire. (Neither is he, but it is his only subject of conversation.)
We will be on the ship for eight days on our way to Southampton, UK. Stay tuned…
Meanwhile…
When your boat is sinking, you either bail it out…or buoy it up. Cut spending…or increase income.
When you have too much debt, those are the only two choices available.
Neither of them appeals to Republicans. Or Democrats. Spending more than they can afford has become a habit. And not one they want to give up. It buys them votes. And campaign contributions. And sinecures.
But doom approaches as they neither bail nor buoy. Spending goes up, while Donald Trump cuts taxes. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:
Tax Cut Extensions Would Add $37 Trillion to Debt by 2054
In a recent letter, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that extending and reviving various provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) would boost debt in Fiscal Year (FY) 2054 from 166 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) under CBO’s March 2024 baseline to 214 percent of GDP, on a dynamic basis.
Based on these estimates, we find that extending the TCJA would add over $37 trillion to the debt over the next 30 years, including $4.5 trillion over the next ten years and $15.0 trillion over the next 20 years. In real 2031 dollars – adjusted for inflation to be roughly comparable to the ten-year score – we estimate the extensions would add $23.5 trillion to the deficit over the next three decades, the equivalent of 2.4 percent of GDP.
How can this make sense?
The politicians must have prescription-quality rose-colored glasses to protect tender eyes from the glaring danger. They say the tax cuts, along with lower oil prices from their ‘Drill baby Drill’ energy policy, will lift growth rates enough to compensate. Yes, a Golden Age will soon be upon us.
Or maybe not. As to the growth, Washington’s own ‘Congressional Budget Office’ has its doubts. Associated Press:
Weak population gains and increased government spending will result in slower overall economic growth over the next 30 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Thursday.
The CBO’s latest long-term budget and economic outlook report — for a timeframe that spans 2025 to 2055 — projects publicly held debt to reach 156% of gross domestic product, or GDP, in 2055. That’s down from the agency’s March 2024 long-term budget projection, which said publicly held debt would be equal to a record 166% of American economic activity by 2054.
The mix of slower population growth and unfettered spending will also result in weaker economic growth over the next three decades than what the CBO projected last year. Lower birthrates also mean that the United States is becoming more dependent on immigrants working to sustain growth.
Let’s see…lower tax collections…lower growth…more debt. What to make of it?
We won’t mention it to anyone here on the ship. But it sounds like we will all soon be ‘in peril on the sea.’
Regards,
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Bill Bonner,
For Fat Tail Daily
