Rare Earths: End of the Line?

Donald Trump, China, tariffs, ending the war in Ukraine, Greenland and Russia. 2025 is the year of headlines.

Or more aptly, the year for rare earth headlines.

This group of commodities has risen from the back of a geeky science textbook to the hottest thing in markets in 2025.

It has been the big-ticket item that has threaded together all the biggest headlines this year…

Like the war in Ukraine.

You might recall that earlier in the year, the US and Ukraine were discussing a minerals-for-military-aid deal that would hand Ukraine’s seemingly vast supplies of rare earths to the US economy.

Thus, solve America’s reliance on China for this critical group of commodities.

In return, the US would hand Ukraine vast military aid.

A win-win deal.

But in the days after that announcement, I wrote this piece:

‘Ukraine’s Rare Earth Fallacy’

Calling BS on Ukraine’s seemingly vast supply of rare earths.

In the days following this announcement, I researched a report by the US Geological Survey (USGS) on Ukraine’s mining sector.

Importantly, it was published before the war began in 2022, thereby eliminating some potentially false narratives.

The report confirmed Ukraine as the third-largest producer of rutile and the world’s sixth-largest producer of ilmenite, iron ore, and graphite.

Other important contributions included kaolin, manganese, and magnesium.

But absolutely no mention of Rare Earths in this USGS report!

Yet, despite the lack of evidence from the world’s authority on global mineral reserves, the media unanimously spruiked Ukraine’s rare earth potential…

From Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, BBC and ABC News here in Australia.

This was supposed to be a sure-fire way out for both the US and Ukraine.

But then it all went quiet.

Weeks later, some of these news outlets quietly made a backflip, pronouncing that Ukraine’s rare earth reserves may not have been as vast as ‘earlier reports’ claimed.

So much for quality reporting.

As an Investor, it pays to keep a Level Head

And be wary of the ‘trusted’ news outlets.

I can’t recall commodities dominating global headlines as much as rare earths are currently doing.

That would usually serve as a warning sign for investors… A market top is close.

But that’s not to say you can’t profit from it! I tipped Lynas Rare Earths [ASX: LYC] to my paid readers back in May 2025.

Since then, its share price has gone bonkers, driven entirely by the mad scramble among politicians to find (or invent) ideas on where they can source rare earth supply.

The stock has increased by about 150% in the past four months.

Could it go further?

Absolutely.

You may have heard about the latest rift between China and the US, AGAIN centred around rare earths.

According to various sources, the semiconductor supply chain is bracing for a major disruption following China’s issuance of additional curbs on rare earth mineral exports.

That’s why Trump slapped an additional tariff on China last Friday, pulling the rug out from under the bulls who’ve enjoyed a historic melt-up in global markets this year.

Offering further ‘headline-driven’ fuel for rare earth stocks.

So, how does it all End?

I wouldn’t usually draw my conclusion from a Hollywood film.

Still, the spoof featuring Leonardo DiCaprio and Meryl Streep, called ‘Don’t Look Up,’ seems to be a pretty good analogy for how the crowd bases their investment decision-making…

In the movie, the world is facing an extinction-level event after scientists identify an asteroid on a direct collision course with Earth.

But any attempts to push the asteroid off its trajectory are abandoned after a Steve Jobs look-alike tech titan pronounces the asteroid as ‘too valuable to destroy.’

Pronouncing it as a ‘gift from God, rich in rare earths and other valuable minerals, making it ideal for manufacturing smartphones.’

Of course, no one will be able to monetise it once the asteroid hits the planet.

But he and the politicians backing him miss that crucial point.

Like all manias, the rare earths bull market will eventually return to Earth with a cataclysmic impact. But there could be some momentum in this trade, yet.

That’s why we’re still holding onto half of our position in Lynas after taking some profits a few weeks back.

But when a chart starts to look like this:

Source: Trading View

[Click to open in a new window]

You do have to question how much additional upside is left… Especially in a stock that’s still trying to become a profit-making business!

In my mind, the horse has probably bolted on this one; it’s time to look elsewhere.

If you were lucky and got in before this trend went ballistic, by all means ride it for some additional speculative gains; that’s what I’m recommending to my readers.

However, if you’re looking for new opportunities in the market, keep safety as your top priority.

That’s why value-based opportunities could be the best option right now.

Something I detailed in Friday’s edition.

Luckily, the resource market still offers an abundance of ‘value.’

To dig into those, I suggest checking out my latest report here.

Until next time,