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Series Closing Bell

Oil Teetering Ahead of OPEC+

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By Murray Dawes, Friday, 03 October 2025

Oil tumbles to its steepest weekly loss in over three months, with Brent and WTI sliding as traders brace for an OPEC+ supply surge. In the U.S, the government shutdown begins, but markets power higher. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records again. And in Australia, BHP–China iron ore tensions shake resource names, even as banks and healthcare drive the ASX 200 higher.

Conditions are ripe for an oil price crash.

There, I said it. You can bag me out in future if I’m wrong.

With OPEC+ meeting in a few days to discuss raising supply, traders have been selling first and asking questions later.

Brent crude oil was down 6.4% on the week at time of writing.

The low of the last four and a half years of trading is at US$58.44.

The charts are pointing to a swan-dive occurring beneath that level towards US$45.00.

But when you look at the last 25 years of oil trading, a drop of that magnitude could set up an awesome buying opportunity.

Expectations were that oil use would be phased out over the next few decades, so there is a lack of investment in finding new oil fields.

If demand ends up higher than expected, we may be sleep walking into an undersupplied market in a few years’ time.

So, a crash first and then a massive rally later.

Charlie and I show you a detailed analysis of the oil chart over the past 25 years so you can understand what may be coming and why it could be a great opportunity for you soon.

We also consider the US government shutdown and the recent run in biotech stocks.

So, click on the video below to watch the latest episode of the Closing Bell, and be sure to give us a ‘like’ on YouTube if we are adding value to your day.

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Retirement Trader and International Stock Trader

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Murray Dawes

Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio manager. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today, his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer-term-focused service Retirement Trader…and then applies the same system to the ultra-speculative end of the Australian market in Fat Tail Microcaps (this service is strictly limited and via invitation only).

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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