Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
Coles said total price inflation in supermarkets is moderating.
Inflation was 5.8% in the fourth quarter, down from 6.2% in the third quarter.
Coles reported:
‘In the fresh category, deflation in fresh produce was driven by vegetables, particularly cucumbers, broccoli and capsicum, while inflation in meat, deli and seafood moderated largely due to red meat. However, bakery inflation remained elevated due to higher wheat commodity prices. In the packaged category, dairy inflation increased as a result of an increase in the farmgate milk price. Higher commodity prices, such as eggs and oil, also impacted the category. The level of supplier cost price increase requests remained elevated but was lower compared to the first half, with the main drivers of the requests relating to raw materials such as wheat, dairy and sugar, and utilities.’
Looking to FY24, Coles said:
‘In the early part of FY24, Supermarkets volumes have remained modestly positive compared to the prior corresponding period and we have seen early signs of customers shifting from out of home dining. Headline inflation has continued to moderate with the fresh produce category remaining in deflation. However, inflation in bakery, grocery and dairy remains consistent with the fourth quarter.
‘In Supermarkets, in FY24, we expect to open approximately 15 new stores, close six stores and renew 50 stores. In Liquor,
we expect to open approximately 20 new stores, close six stores and renew more than 100 stores. We also expect to open
our second ADC.’
Coles admitted rising cost of living pressures are hurting households.
So it’s leaning more on its exclusive brands.
The supermarket giant said ‘Exclusive to Coles’ sales rose 9.6% in FY23 to $12.4 billion.
That growth could well continue into FY24 since Coles launched over 1,400 Exclusive to Coles products during the year.
Supermarket stalwart Coles nearly hit a 52-week low on Tuesday after sinking over 6% following the release of its FY23 results.
That’s a hefty move for a stock of its girth and stature.
Part of the sell-off was due to unmet expectations.
COL’s revenue and profit both undershot consensus forecasts.
That’s a net income margin of 2.7% but Coles reported that its Return on Capital (ROC) was 16.5% in FY23, up slightly from 16.4% on the prior year.
Source: Coles
Coles CEO Leah Weckert said ‘cost of living is the number one focus for our customers right now.’
Have you ever held a 100-bagger stock?
— Fat Tail Daily (@FatTailDaily) August 22, 2023
Meta’s Twitter rival — Threads — is dying.
After a spectacular launch, the social media platform is withering from lack of attention.
Users are dropping off.
Engagement on #Threads is falling sharply. https://t.co/St9DrjFIE8 pic.twitter.com/qqj47CXb8S
— Fat Tail Daily (@FatTailDaily) August 21, 2023
$BHP's iron ore outlook in FY23 results announcement. $BHP.AX #ASX https://t.co/dRgD09Bsb2 pic.twitter.com/tj56scOwWo
— Fat Tail Daily (@FatTailDaily) August 21, 2023
Online retailer Kogan [ASX:KGN] is down 12% after FY23 revenue fell 32% to $489.5 million.
Net loss after tax improved from $35.5 million to $25.9 million.
Kogan — bloated with inventory in recent years — said it has aligned inventory to ‘current levels of demand’, reducing it by 57% in FY23.
Revenue wasn’t the only thing to fall.
Active customers fell from 3.97 million in FY22 to 2.95 million in FY23, a 25% reduction.
Queensland Pacific Metals [ASX:QPM] is down 28% in early trade after raising $16 million at a heavy discount.
QPM is set to raise $16 million before costs after rattling the can at 7 cents a share.
The battery chemicals developer is currently trading at 6.7 cents a share, a new 52-week low.
The stock is down 55% in the last 12 months and had $16.4 million in cash at the end of June.
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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