Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
What happened to NFTs? Non-fungible tokens?
Justin Bieber and Paris Hilton used to go on talk shows spruiking NFTs but the hype seems well and truly dead.
Someone bought a Recur Pass NFT for $88,888 in February 2022. They're now selling for around $8, and Recur is shutting down. https://t.co/28Usfaphgu
— Molly White (@molly0xFFF) August 21, 2023
Our commodities expert James Cooper was interviewed for a Livewire Markets piece on lithium giant Allkem [ASX:AKE].
Commenting on the results, James said:
‘Being a large-scale producer with two advanced operations, there were no big surprises, with the result meeting expectations. The company is in a solid position and is continuing to buck weakness in the lithium sector, with pretty solid output and revenue growth in FY23.’
On the resources sector in general, James is seeing good opportunities emerging in the juniors following heavy selling:
‘There’s been some heavy selling in the last couple of weeks, driven by deflation fears in China, so there are some very good value opportunities in the junior segment of the industry, among the smaller explorers and producers.
‘But among the big producers, we would have rated that a 5 (where 5 is expensive and 1 is cheap) a couple of weeks ago, now down to a 4 with the selling we’ve seen.
‘It’s difficult to see some of the Quality producers getting much cheaper but that’s driven by China, whether it can push through some more stimulus. It really rests on China currently, from both an upside and downside perspective.’
100 baggers are stocks that return $100 for every $1 invested.
Finding a 100-bagger can bring life-changing gains.
Obviously.
An initial $10,000 transforming into $1 million will overhaul one’s lifestyle.
But how do you find 100-bagger stocks?
In investing, the ‘how’ is the hardest question. A bastardised Aesop’s fable shows why.
A grasshopper approaches a colony of ants, seeking advice on lodgings for the coming winter.
‘Guys, you’ve got a house and provisions for the winter. I don’t, and I’m getting worried. What should I do?’
‘Easy. Change into a cockroach and find yourself a house where you’ll find food and warmth.’
Relieved, the grasshopper thanked the ants and was about to walk away when he asked, ‘Oh, how do I change myself into a cockroach?’
One of the ants waved him off, ‘We’ve given you the master plan. It’s up to you to work out the details.’
This altered fable comes from Thomas Phelps’s 100 to 1 In the Stock Market, the first book on 100-bagger stocks.
Phelps’s point was clear.
It’s one thing to know you should buy quality businesses and hold on.
Executing this is harder.
Is there a magic formula?
https://www.moneymorning.com.au/20230822/can-you-really-find-100-bagger-stocks.html
$BHP's iron ore outlook in FY23 results announcement. $BHP.AX #ASX https://t.co/dRgD09Bsb2 pic.twitter.com/tj56scOwWo
— Fat Tail Daily (@FatTailDaily) August 21, 2023
Online retailer Kogan [ASX:KGN] is down 12% after FY23 revenue fell 32% to $489.5 million.
Net loss after tax improved from $35.5 million to $25.9 million.
Kogan — bloated with inventory in recent years — said it has aligned inventory to ‘current levels of demand’, reducing it by 57% in FY23.
Revenue wasn’t the only thing to fall.
Active customers fell from 3.97 million in FY22 to 2.95 million in FY23, a 25% reduction.
Queensland Pacific Metals [ASX:QPM] is down 28% in early trade after raising $16 million at a heavy discount.
QPM is set to raise $16 million before costs after rattling the can at 7 cents a share.
The battery chemicals developer is currently trading at 6.7 cents a share, a new 52-week low.
The stock is down 55% in the last 12 months and had $16.4 million in cash at the end of June.
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.
All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.
The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.
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