Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
A subscriber of my Crypto Capital service messaged me last week:
‘Hey Ryan, have you seen this?’
He linked out to an article from a crypto sceptic.
Now, I don’t usually read such articles.
Not because I don’t like to test my conviction against opposing arguments.
I do.
It’s just I’ve found that most armchair critics don’t understand what they’re criticising. They broadcast their ignorance every time they write, as they get so many things wrong.
But as a courtesy to this subscriber, I gave the article he sent a quick scan…
If you created a drinking game for these same, tired old arguments, you’d be more than tipsy a few sentences in.
‘Ponzi scheme.’
Drink!
‘Used by money launderers, porn sites, and drug dealers.’
Drink!
‘Relies on the greater fool theory.’
Drink…!
The article in question tried to get a bit technical at one stage (despite the author in the past admitting he didn’t understand technology!) and said blockchains weren’t ‘scalable’.
Well, here’s banking giant Morgan Stanley saying earlier this year how Bitcoin’s Lightning Network was ‘superior’ to Visa.
Hmmm, I think that’s pretty ‘scalable’!
Anyway, I wrote back to the subscriber.
‘Nothing new here. Same old arguments I’ve been hearing since 2013. IMO, the greater fools will be the ones that leave it too late to get in!’
And it’s true…
I have been hearing these attacks for a long, long time.
Check out this interactive chart of notable ‘Bitcoin sceptic’ articles over time:
You can go onto the site and click on each dot to read the various articles, and you’ll see what I mean.
Same old arguments every single time.
To be fair, this kind of thing happens with all new technologies, especially ones that disrupt the status quo so much:
For example, compare the ‘bear market’ pair of headlines below:
https://www.moneymorning.com.au/20220926/the-greater-fool-isnt-who-you-think.html
The S&P/ASX 200 ended 1.60% lower on Monday. The index was dragged down by steep losses in the energy sector.
The energy sector fell 6.30%, with coal stocks suffering the largest drops.
New Hope (ASX:NHC) ended 14.7% lower. Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) ended 14% lower. Coronado Global (ASX:CRN) ended 12.4%.
Lithium stocks were also hit hard.
Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) finished 9% down. Core Lithium (ASX:CXO) finished 8.7% down. Lake Resources (ASX:LKE) finished 8.6% down. Allkem (ASX:AKE) finished 6.7% down.
https://twitter.com/MoneyMorningAU/status/1574289386471948288
Connectivity provider Superloop (ASX:SLC) is up 11% late on Monday, bucking the wider market sell-off.
Superloop is acquiring VostroNet, a provider of wholesale fibre-to-the-premises access networks, for $35 million, comprising $24.5 million in cash and $10.5 million in SLC shares.
VostroNet also provides student accommodation broadband. VostroNet’s key customers in that area include UniLodge, Iglu Student Accommodation, Queensland University Technology, and Sunshine Coast Council.
SLC said the acquisition “consolidates and expands Superloop’s strong managed WiFi position into adjacent On-Net broadband markets.”
As MasterStream summarised:
“These two scenarios illustrate one of the basic differences between on-net and off-net connectivity. On-net service, which refers to a carrier that owns network facilities at a specific location, is already connected at that location. By contrast, off-net connectivity refers to a solution provider that has connected to the location by purchasing use of the local network facility through a supplier relationship. As a result, off-net connectivity can involve more unknown and hard-to-identify variables that may affect not only connectivity, but also service quality at an address.”
Superloop concluded:
“The combination of assets will deliver a market-leading position in the supply of broadband in the Tertiary Student accommodation sector, delivering national coverage to approximately 40,000 student beds.”
“As discussed in Superloop’s recent earnings call, it is encouraging to note this market segment has now recovered to its pre-COVID levels.”
The US Federal Reserve is embarking on one of the fastest interest rate hiking cycles in its history.
And the Fed is set to hike interest rates further as it reiterates its commitment to bring down inflation.
This is the fastest Fed hiking cycle in many decades, if not ever. pic.twitter.com/VeANVoFT7h
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) September 25, 2022
The pound continues to slump against the US dollar, falling to a record low against the USD.
The pound’s freefall comes after the UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled large tax cuts funded by significant borrowing.
The pound’s weakness against the USD was also exacerbated by the US Fed continuing to raise interest rates aggressively.
JUST IN: Pound slumps to record low against dollar https://t.co/fAfSGo5siU pic.twitter.com/4d4M4CVxBh
— Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) September 26, 2022
Veteran investment strategist Jim Rickards unpacks the intricacies and implications of central bank digital currencies in the latest video for Fat Tail Investment Research.
The ASX All Ords is currently down 1.8%.
Here are the worst performers:
Large ASX coal stocks are falling on Monday.
ASX #coal stocks are falling on Monday.
– $WHC down 10.3%
– $NHC down 9%
– $CRN down 8.5% #ausbiz— Fat Tail Daily (@FatTailDaily) September 26, 2022
The S&P/ASX 200 extended its morning losses, now down 2.1% nearing midday trade.
The benchmark Aussie index is now down 15% year to date and down 9.4% in the past month.
At 6,438 points, the ASX 200 is currently trading at multi-year lows not seen since November 2020.
Graphite stock Syrah Resources (ASX:SYR) has exited a trading halt initiated last week following a “labour-related operational interruption” at its graphite production site in Balama, Mozambique.
Today, Syrah elaborated on the interruption.
Operations at Balama have been interrupted by “illegal industrial action by a small contingent of local employees and contractors.”
Citing the disruption, SYR halted operations at Balama and moved its workforce from site on September 20.
SYR further stated:
“The Company is working with Union and Mozambique Government representatives to progress negotiations and,
concurrently, with security services to ensure the safety of all personnel and stakeholders and preserve plant integrity during the period of disruption. Syrah is focussed on resolving the industrial action through mediation and negotiation under the legal framework of the CLA in order to safely restart operations at Balama. Syrah fully supports the rights of employees and contractors to collectively organise under Mozambican labour law and is committed to working constructively with the Union to resolve outstanding issues.”
SYR said it is currently coordinating a return of employees and contractors to return on site but did not give a definitive timeline for resumption of normal operations at Balama.
Mozambique news publication Zitamar last week reported that Syrah evacuated staff “for fear protests could turn ugly.”
The management of the graphite mine in Balama were evacuated at the start of this week for fear that protests could turn uglyhttps://t.co/8E3NBRPqq1
— Zitamar News (@ZitamarNews) September 22, 2022
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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