Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
The ASX 200 closed flat today at 7,750 after a remarkable in the last hour and a half of trading that recovered the major benchmarks losses from this morning.
Five of the eleven sectors closed up today, with Discretionary (+0.52%) seeing the highest gains today.
At the bottom was Energy (-0.73%), which sold off as oil prices eased (see story below for macro details).
Woodside closed down -1.12%, while Santos finished down -1.15%.
In other notable moves today, Fletcher Building was the ASX 200’s worst performer today after downgrading its guidance after noting a softer housing market both here and in New Zealand; the company shares fell by -10.87% today to trade at $2.87 per share.
BSP Financial was the benchmark’s biggest gainer, up +8.73% to $6.85, while many mid-tier gold miners also had a solid day on the market, gaining with the rising gold price.
Oil futures extended their decline today, weighed down by signs of tepid fuel demand and comments from Federal Reserve officials that dampened hopes for interest rate cuts, which could potentially curb economic growth and fuel consumption in the world’s largest economy.
Brent crude futures slipped -0.3% to US$82.53 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures fell -0.3% to US$78.03 per barrel. Both benchmarks are around US$1 lower since Friday as Fed officials debated whether interest rates are high enough to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Analysts anticipate the U.S. central bank to maintain its policy rate at the current level for an extended period, lending support to the stronger dollar. A robust greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies.
Oil prices also faced downward pressure amid indications of weak demand, as U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories rose in the week.
Globally, refiners are grappling with slumping profits for diesel due to increased supplies from new refineries, coupled with mild weather in the northern hemisphere and sluggish economic activity, which has eaten into demand.
However, the market remained supported by expectations that OPEC+, could extend supply cuts into the second half of the year. Their next meeting is at the beginning of June.
Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, reiterated its commitment to the voluntary oil production cuts agreed by OPEC and expressed its keenness to cooperate with member countries on efforts to achieve greater stability in global oil markets, something that was previously in doubt.
The monthly NAB business survey for April was released today, with some notable signs of weakness in the Australian economy.
Business conditions fell 2pts to +7 index points, and are now around the long-run average. Employment declined 5pts (unrounded) to +2 index points, while trading conditions fell 2pts and profitability was steady.
‘All three components of business conditions were back at their long-run averages in April,’ said NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster. ‘In some ways this marks a bit of a milestone after a long period in which conditions have been gradually easing from the very high levels seen in 2022, reflecting slowing economic growth.’
In a good summary post here from APAC market analyst David Scutt, we can see that Employment and labour metrics were the troubling signs in Apirls’ numbers.
Employment growth down sharply, new work drying up and easing input and output price pressures. Granted, the NAB survey can be volatile, but a few cracks starting to show in the business outlook #ausbiz #auspol pic.twitter.com/uNc4sF5lSr
— David Scutt (@Scutty) May 13, 2024
The ASX 200 is down by -0.17% at 7,735.9 around midday as markets turn down.
The Financials sector is one of the heavier losses seen today, down -0.46% as markets await Federal budgets, while the Energy sector is down -0.78% as oil prices ease slightly.
On individual stock performances, Fletcher Building is today’s worst-performing stock, down over -10% as the company downgraded its earnings guidance for FY24. The company said a ‘notable slowdown‘ in house sales in New Zealand and a weaker property market here were to blame.
Life360 (+3.51%), Bellevue Gold (+4.69%), and Remelius Resources (+3.25%) are this morning’s top performers on the ASX 200.
Remelius was notable for an updated mineral resources estimate that was up 64% on their previous estimate for Eridanus and nearby projects.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) is investigating ANZ Bank over concerns that its traders may have manipulated the sale of government debt last year, according to the AFR this morning.
This marks the second time in a decade that the bank’s fixed-income team has faced accusations of improper profiteering.
According to AFR, ASIC launched its investigation after receiving a complaint from the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM), the agency responsible for managing government debt.
The AOFM became concerned last year about the manner in which some of its debt had been sold, with sources indicating that the agency believed bank staff involved in organizing the sale of bonds might have acted inappropriately.
ANZ is one of the most active banks in syndicating new debt for the AOFM. While an AOFM spokesperson confirmed sharing information with the regulator ‘on a variety of matters, including its debt sales,’ they added that no specific complaint was made against ANZ.
ANZ shares are down by -3.23% in this morning’s trading, now at $28.15 per share.
Lendlease [ASX:LLC] has confirmed receiving a $112 million tax bill from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO), following allegations by a whistleblower that the company is ‘double-dipping’ on tax benefits for its retirement living business.
In a note on the the ASX this morning, Lendlease acknowledged the report published by AFR on Friday.
According to the company, the ATO issued a statement of audit position and an amended tax assessment related to an audit of the partial sale of Lendlease’s retirement living business in the 2018 financial year.
‘Lendlease is confident of its position and will dispute the amended assessment,’ the company stated.
The amended tax assessment pertains specifically to the 25% sale of the retirement living trust for approximately $450 million to the Dutch pension fund APG in 2017.
Lendlease shares are down by -3.82% in this morning’s trading at $6.04 per share.
Good morning. Charlie here,
The ASX 200 opened down -0.19% to 7,734.4 this morning, following cautious trading on Wall Street on Friday. Markets anxiously await US CPI data on Wednesday.
This week also marks the last week of the US March quarterly reporting season. Of the major companies, Walmart and Home Depot will be the biggest to watch.
So far in the reporting season, 92% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with 79% beating earnings growth expectations. That’s above the norm of 76%.
European stocks continue to touch fresh highs, with the UK benchmark now leading the way as the latest data shows the UK has exited its recession.
Gold finished last week with renewed strength on bets of earlier cuts. Last week the spot price gained around 2.75%, its strongest performance in five weeks.
Traders are pricing in slim odds of a rate cut at the Fed’s June 12 meeting, with a 30% probability of easing.
The most likely scenario (in my opinion) is that any moves to cut interest rates will more likely come at the September 18 meeting.
Wall Street: S&P 500 +0.16%, Dow +0.32%, Nasdaq flat.
Overseas: FTSE +0.63%, STOXX +0.61%, Nikkei +0.41%, SSE flat.
The Aussie dollar fell -0.05% to US 66.05 cents.
US 10-year bond yields +4bps to 4.50%.
Australian 10-year bond yields flat at 4.34%.
Gold flat at US$2,360.75, while Silver flat at US$28.18.
Bitcoin rose +1.16% to US$61,491, while Ethereum rose +0.72% to US$2,930.
Oil Brent flat at US$82.78, while WTI Crude flat at US$78.10.
Iron ore flat at US$115.80 a tonne.
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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