Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
The ASX 200 closed up +0.45% to 7,824.2 today as large cap miners and utlility stocks carried the day.
A spectacular jump in Iron ore Futures helped many of the major minors gain today, with BHP (+2%) Fortesue Metals (+1.65%) and Rio Tinto (+3.16%) all gaining.
Iron ore futures added another 2.6% on the gains seen yesterday of 6.2% which pushed the price back over US$100 per tonne. The price is currently at US$107.05 on the singapore exchange.
In company news, energy company Santos fell 2%, with its shares falling to $7.69. This was due to further delays in its planned $15 billion LNG project in Papua New Guinea, with a final investment decision now scheduled for the following year.
The medical glove manufacturer Ansell saw a strong rally of 6.5%, with shares reaching $25.43. This was after its $400 million underwritten placement at $22.45 a share to finance the acquisition of a unit from the US giant Kimberly-Clark Corporation.
The New Zealand specialist lender Heartland Group tumbled -8.9%, with its shares falling to $1.02. This followed the completion of the institutional leg of a $192 million equity raising to acquire Challenger Bank.
Elders rebounded by 7.7%, with its shares trading at $8 apiece, following a 24% plunge yesterday due to a trading update that lowered FY24 guidance.
Santos’ [ASX:STO] ambitious $15 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Papua New Guinea has encountered yet another setback, which has pushed back the final investment decision to next year.
The delay stems from initial bids submitted by contractors vying to construct the project, which revealed that the project would be economically unviable under the proposed terms.
In a joint statement released late Monday in Paris and Port Moresby, TotalEnergies, the French energy major managing the Papua LNG venture, and the Papua New Guinean government acknowledged that “more work is needed to reach a final investment decision.” They stated that the project “will need to keep working with contractors to obtain commercially viable contracts.”
Santos shares are down by -2.17% in this afternoon’s trading.
Cat Rock, a fund manager based in Connecticut, has raised its stake in online retailer Cettire [ASX:CTT] according to a substantial notice filing published on Tuesday, the company’s third-largest shareholder has increased its position from 9.4% to 10.4%, acquiring an additional 4 million shares.
The purchases followed a nearly 30 percent decline in the company’s share price after reports in The Australian Financial Review raised concerns about its payment of duties.
In April alone, Cat Rock has bought approximately 1.5 million shares, spending just shy of $5 million. Cat Rock, a long-term shareholder, had previously owned as much as 13.4% of the company. However, in November, it trimmed its investment by selling nearly 15 million shares.
Cettire shares are now up by +0.76% in trading today at $3.33 per share, while the company’s share price has gained nearly 100% in the past 12 months.
The ASX 200 is up by +0.46% at 7,824.8 around midday as Mining carries the benchmark today, with the sector up +1.65% amidst rising Iron ore prices.
With Iron Ore futures jumping on hopes of increased demand from China after stimulus, mega-cap miners are up today.
BHP is up +2.16%, Fortescue Metals gained nearly 2%, while BHP is up 2.17%. Rio Tinto is up by 3.33% this afternoon, while Santos is down -1.6% after its planned $15 billion LNG project in Papua New Guinea suffered further delays, with the final investment decision now pushed to next year.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 2.4% to 82.4 in April, from 84.4 last month, as households remained concerned about their finances amid high borrowing costs.
Anything below 100 is considered pessimistic by the index.
“The pessimism that has dominated the consumer mood for nearly two years now is still showing few signs of lifting,” said Matthew Hassan, a senior economist at Westpac.
“The April sentiment update suggests consumers continue to expect progress on inflation and associated cost-of-living pressures to be slow. Consumers remain unconvinced about prospective interest rate cuts.”
The survey’s measure of family finances compared to a year earlier rose 0.5% in April. While the outlook for finances over the next 12 months rebounded 1.8%, underpinned by the government’s revamped tax cuts due to kick in this July.
However, the outlook for the economy for the year ahead fell 2.7%, while the outlook for the next five years plunged 4.4%.
Buyer sentiment sharply deteriorated, with the index measuring whether it was a good time to buy major household items falling 6.6%.
Healthcare manufacturing giant Ansell [ASX:ANN] is up by +7% to $25.60 per share after the company came out of trading halt this morning.
Yesterday the company announced the planned acquisition of Kimberly Clark’s Personal PPE business for US$640 million in cash.
The deal involved Ansell conducting a $400 million underwritten share placement at a 6% discount to finance the deal.
For the full breakdown of the deal, check out the investor presentation here. Ansell claims the rationale behind the acquisition is a broader move into protective gear that goes beyond Ansell’s speciality of hand protection (latex gloves).
Good morning. Charlie here,
The ASX 200 opened up +0.37% to 7,817.7 after a slow session on Wall Street as markets there wait for key inflation data and first-quarter earnings season to begin.
Bond yields continue their rise, with the US 10-year up 21 bps in April to their highest since November. Traders conviction of three cuts seems to be shrinking to now just two cuts by the Fed this year.
The market mood has certainly shifted with a more cautious tone as traders push back cut expectations amid potentially sticky inflation.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York said:
“Wall Street is adjusting expectations to reflect the fact that the Fed could be slower to lower interest rates and that now the greatest likelihood is for a rate cut to occur at the July FOMC meeting, rather than June.”
In Australia today, we’ll get a snapshot of consumers with the Westpac and NAB business surveys.
Iron ore futures saw a healthy recovery overnight, jumping over 5% as traders put bets on China’s demand picking up thanks to stimulus and a jump in orders after the long weekend for Chinese mills.
Healthcare giant Ansell comes out of a trading halt after announcing yesterday that it plans to acquire Kimberly Clark’s PPE business and a $400 million raise.
Wall Street: S&P 500 flat, Dow flat, Nasdaq flat.
Overseas: FTSE +0.41%, STOXX +0.62%, Nikkei +0.91%, SSE -0.72%.
The Aussie dollar rose +0.50% to US 65.72 cents.
US 10-year bond yields +2bps to 4.42%.
Australian 10-year bond yields +9bps to 4.19%.
Gold rose 1.21% to US$2,339.74, while Silver rose 2.71% to US$27.91.
Bitcoin rose +3.16% to US$71,644, while Ethereum rose +2.75% to US$3,693.
Oil Brent fell -0.60% to US$90.62, while WTI Crude rose +0.27% to US$86.66.
Iron ore jumps 5.9% to US$104.10 a tonne.
4:34 pm — April 9, 2024
3:56 pm — April 9, 2024
3:51 pm — April 9, 2024
1:55 pm — April 9, 2024
11:13 am — April 9, 2024
11:08 am — April 9, 2024
10:19 am — April 9, 2024
Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.
All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.
The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.
Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research
Copyright © 2025 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988