Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
The ASX 200 closed up +0.12% at 7,733.5 after trading down for most of the session.
Its a continuation of a relatively subdued week in the markets as the cross-currents of expected rate cuts has only come due to the economic weakness seen both here and in the wider market.
Six of the eleven sectors finished in the green at the close today, with Financials (+0.80%) and Utilities (+0.54%) ahead of the other sectors.
A broadly tech-based selloff in the US was mirrored on the ASX with the Tech sector falling -1.44% today.
The top performer at close was Heartland Group (+15.20%) and PYC Therapeutics (+10.13%).
Meanwhile, AFRs hit piece tanked the share price of Cettire (-14.38%) today, accusing the company of failing to pay its duty taxes. The company refuted the claims in a response today, claiming the reporter misunderstood the duty tax it owed to the federal government.
Dicker Data also fell sharply today, the worst of the tech stocks, falling -10%.
ANZ Group [ASX:ANZ] sold around 546 million shares or a 16.5% interest in Malaysian lender AMMB Holdings today in a block trade today worth approximately 680 million.
The move will bring its remaining stake in the company to around 5.2% once the sale is completed.
The move is part of the bank’s strategy to shrink key business lines involving low-returning institutional loans and its exposure to SEA retail and wealth banking.
The settlement of the sale is expected to finish on 8 March. Shares in the ANZ are up by +0.6% in trading today.
Magellan Financial Group [ASX:MFG] has rallied 9% after its total funds management increased to $37.2 billion in February, up from the $36.3 billion booked in January.
Magellan recorded net outflows of $200 million during the period.
The funds were spread between:
Global Equities: $16.4b, up from $15.5b in Jan 2024.
Infrastructure Equities: $15.5b, down from $15.6b in Jan 2024.
Australian Equities: $5.3b, up from $5.2b in Jan 2024.
The latest GDP figures show Australia in the midst of its slowest economic growth since the 1990s as household spending remains anemic.
The hopes of a turnaround here are still at the feet of the RBA’s cut this year. Whether that comes earlier around mid-year or September is going to be significant for the market and economy as homeowners await some form of relief.
Shane Oliver AMP chief economist remains fairly pessimistic of the picture but there are some hopes as weak figures like this mean cuts could come around August.
Household incomes are also finally on the rise (albeit 0.1% over inflation) but combined with Stage three tax cuts coming in July the second half of the year could see a turn around.
Aust Dec qtr GDP +0.2%qoq/1.5%yoy, bit > our exp of 0.1%, but in line with mkt and RBA.
Weak consumer (just +0.1%), falling housing & equipment capex & detraction from inventory offset by constr capex, public demand & trade
Econ remains v weak with per capita recession continuing pic.twitter.com/GRw0UveDBF— Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) March 6, 2024
The ASX 200 is trading down -0.25% at 7,705.1 around midday today as the market sees a strong tech-focused sell-off across Wall Street and ASX.
The market largely ignored the GDP figures this morning and continued its downward trend.
The Tech sector is down nearly -2% in trading today as major caps Wisetech Global falls -2.5%, Xero drops -1.8% and Dicker Data drops -10.3%.
Gold stocks show some bright spots in the market as spot gold prices continue to shine. Spot gold is currently up +0.51% to US$2,125.53.
In the gold miners Perseus Mining is up 1.82% to $1.96 per share, while Ramelius Resources is up +1.91% to $1.61 per share.
On the ASX 200 this afternoon the best peformer is Mercury NZ up +3.49%, while Cettire is down by over -14% after an AFR article highlighted issues with customer satisfaction and duty payments. The company responded acusing the AFR of misunderstanding the duty charge scheme.
Australia’s Gross Domestic Product grew 0.2% in the fourth quarter, falling short of the 0.3% consensus forecasts.
That’s a year-on-year growth rate of 1.5%, down from the previous 2.1%, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
As disappointing as the number is, the figures mean that the country sidesteps the qualification of a recession.
Interestingly, Australia differs from many countries by avoiding the ‘technical recession’ indicator of two-quarters of negative growth in Real GDP.
This technical recession label can sometimes be as psychological as it is descriptive for markets so by avoiding it we can avoid any further tanking of consumer sentiment which already sits at a low for 2024.
Not that consumers can feel much better about the outcomes. We are already experiencing the biggest fall in living standards in half a century.
Another small silver lining is that it gives the RBA further confidence that the economy is slowing down enough to warrant interest rate cuts sooner.
This has started to shift from expectations of September to closer to June for many in the markets, although it remains a moving target.
The RBA’s next meeting is March 18-19 in its now-standard two-day meeting schedule, with a decision on 19 March and a press conference.
Good morning. Charlie here,
The ASX 200 opened down -0.17% to 7,711.3, following another day of selling on Wall Street as concerns of high valuations in tech prompted a sell-off.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei continues its record-breaking run even as the economy falls into recession. The index is now past the 40,000 mark for the first time this week and appears to have room to run.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies sold off heavily overnight after BTC briefly touched a new all-time high of US$69,200.
In Australia, we have GDP figures out this morning. Forecasts are for a YoY growth rate of 1.4%, down from the prior 2.1%, but things remain uncertain.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers was out warning of weak growth last week, saying, ‘there is enough around to trouble us about how the economy finished 2023’.
On a separate note for our commodity and mining traders. A note from Goldman Sachs warned traders against front footing a rally in battery metals, saying the nickel bear market is ‘far from over’.
The note forecasted that cobalt, nickel, and lithium carbonate prices would continue their decline by as much as 25% over the next 12 months.
‘Despite the significant downside in battery metals prices … we believe it is too early to call a decisive end to these respective bear markets’
Wall Street: S&P 500 -1.02%, Dow -1.04%, Nasdaq -1.64%.
Overseas: FTSE flat, STOXX -0.40%, Nikkei flat, SSE +0.28%.
The Aussie dollar fell -0.07% to US 65.04 cents.
US 10-year bond yields -6bps to 4.15%.
Australian 10-year bond yields -7bps to 4.03%.
Gold is up +0.63% to US$2,127.97, while Silver is down -1.17% to US$23.67.
Bitcoin fell -7.07% to US$62,983, while Ethereum fell -3.96% to US$3,457.
Oil Brent fell -0.89% to US$82.06, while WTI Crude fell -0.79% to US$78.12.
Iron ore fell -0.84% to US$114.65 a tonne.
5:19 pm — March 6, 2024
3:26 pm — March 6, 2024
3:15 pm — March 6, 2024
2:01 pm — March 6, 2024
1:35 pm — March 6, 2024
12:06 pm — March 6, 2024
10:13 am — March 6, 2024
Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.
All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.
The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.
Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research
Copyright © 2024 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988