Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
The ASX 200 closed down by -0.56% at 7,773.3 as major Iron miners weighed down the markets as Iron ore prices fell below US$100 a tonne.
Tech (-1.41%) also saw heavy losses as markets reacted to fears of later cuts in the US after further rhetoric from Fed officials as lumpy inflation data came in earlier in the week.
All sectors closed in the red today, while the only sub-index to remain in the green was the ASX All Ords Gold index XGD up by +0.13%.
In individual companies, Aurelia Metals was the best performer today, gaining nearly 10%.
The heaviest losses were seen by Tamboran Resources, falling by -13.16 % despite no new announcements.
Tonight, US markets will react to incoming jobs data, which will likely determine next week’s trends, so stay tuned for that.
Have a great weekend!
In a slight surprise, Australia’s trade surplus for the month of February came in lower than market expectations, registering at $7.3 billion.
This figure represents a notable decline from the previous month’s robust surplus of $10.1 billion. The lower-than-anticipated trade surplus can be attributed to a combination of factors.
On the exports front, data revealed a 2.2% month-on-month decrease, primarily driven by lower resource exports.
Conversely, imports surged by 4.8% compared to the previous month.
This increase could indicate building domestic demand for goods and services, reflecting a healthier consumer appetite and business activity within the Australian economy, but it’s still too early to tell.
Aust Feb trade surplus lower than expected at $7.3bn, down from $10.1bn
Exports -2.2%mom with lower resource exports
Imports +4.8%mom pic.twitter.com/0wFod3vBXs— Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) April 5, 2024
Asset manager GQG Partners [ASX:GQG] shares are up by +3.4% after it announced today that its funds under management climbed to US$143.4 billion as of March 31.
The fund manager said they ‘demonstrated a solid start to 2024‘ and said they ‘expected continued business momentum in 2024 and a strong pipeline of potential new FUM‘.
‘Over the last six months GQG’s share price is up nearly 70 per cent. Long-term investors could be forgiven for thinking they’ve missed the buying opportunity.
However, the stock continues to trade on 11x earnings with a 9 per cent dividend yield,’ said Damon Callaghan a partner at ECP Asset Management.
The ASX 200 is down by -0.48% to 7,780.0 at midday as Iron ore miners bring shares down as the price of Iron ore drops below US$100 a tonne.
BHP is down by -0.9%, while Rio Tinto is down by -0.87%, followed by another market giant Fortescue Metals, down -0.64%/
Gold has also broken its seven-day gaining streak, down -0.73% to US$2,280.90 per ounce, while Oil climbed around 2% as rumours of an Iranian strike on Israel spread fear in markets.
For the rest of the session markets will likely remain subdued as the US awaits payrolls data and tensions in the Middle East remain high.
Gold explorer Capricorn Metals [ASX:CMM] is leading losses this morning as the company released its March quarterly production update.
As the company had already warned in an update in early March, heavy rainfall in the area of around 280mm for the quarter meant that production was heavily affected.
Production will be in the range of 26,000-29,000 ounces for this quarter, which means the company has lowered its FY24 guidance from 115,000-125,000 ounces to 112,000-115,000 ounces.
Capricorn Executive Chairman Mark Clark commented:
“It was a challenging quarter at the KGP with significant rainfall impacting mining operations and gold production. However, it was pleasing that despite these impacts the operation delivered a cash and gold build of $27.6 million for the quarter before the discretionary capital spend at Mt Gibson.
The residual effects on mining productivity are still being felt and will be our key operational focus in the June quarter to set the project up for a strong operational performance in FY25.”
Shares are down by -4.3% in this morning’s trading.
Asset manager Magellan Financial [ASX:MFG] reported net outflows of $700 million in March, while overall total assets under management edged up to $37.3 billion.
Retail outflows totalled $200 million, and institutional outflows accounted for $500 million.
Magellan’s stock is down by -1.62% in this morning’s trading but stands up +21.5% in the past 12 months.
Good morning. Charlie here,
The ASX 200 opened down -0.52% to 7,777.0 as Wall Street saw its worst day of trading since mid-February.
A jittery US market awaiting the significant Jobs report due Friday US time was shaken as yet another Fed official made hawkish remarks about cuts ‘not needed’ this year if inflation fails to cool.
In reality, with rates at a 23-year high and not looking like they will move for a while yet, the Fed is just using the only tool it has left in the toolbox—rhetoric.
Still, the remarks from the Minneapolis Fed Bank president, Neel Kashkari, were enough to spill the applecart and send stocks lower as he questioned the need for rate cuts ‘if we continue to see inflation moving sideways’.
Geopolitical fear was also heavy in the air overnight as fears of a wider conflict between Israel and Iran spread through markets as Israel’s Netanyahu threatened Iran.
Talks of planned retaliation for Israel’s bombing of Iranian generals in Damascus this week were enough to send oil prices surging up around 2%. Oil prices are now up nearly 5% since the start of April.
Joe Biden threatened to pull support for Israel after a drone strike that killed seven aid workers, including Australian Zomi Frankcom, who were delivering food in Gaza.
Biden held his first call with Israel’s Netanyahu since early March, saying ‘an immediate ceasefire’ is essential.
Wall Street: S&P 500 -1.23%, Dow -1.35%, Nasdaq -1.40%.
Overseas: FTSE +0.48%, STOXX flat, Nikkei +0.81%, SSE -0.18%.
The Aussie dollar rose +0.35% to US 65.89 cents.
US 10-year bond yields -4bps at 4.31%.
Australian 10-year bond yields -2bps to 4.12%.
Gold fell -0.36% to US$2,289.28, while Silver fell -0.88% to US$26.85.
Bitcoin rose +2.60% to US$67,939, while Ethereum rose 0.16% to US$3,319.
Oil Brent rose +1.95% to US$91.09, while WTI Crude rose +1.67% to US$86.86.
Iron ore fell -1.5% to US$98.00 a tonne.
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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