Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
The ASX 200 closed down -20% at 7,713.6 after a relatively subdued day on the Aussie benchmark as investors await the significant retail data out in the US this evening.
The retail info combined with the recent hotter-then-expected inflation data should give investors a better picture of the next move by the Fed in the coming months.
In trading five sectors of the eleven finished in the green at the session close as mining carried the day, up 1.85% after surging commodity prices in copper, gold and silver lifted miners.
At close Sandfire Resources was the ASX 200s biggest gainer, up +7%, followed by Evolution Mining gaining +6.63%.
Rare earths developer Arafura [ASX:ARU] has seen its shares jump an astonishing 72.8% in trading this afternoon after the company announced the securing of $588 million in debt funding facility and a further $252 million in grants from the government for the development of its Nolan Project in NT.
The NdPr oxide mine once complete is expected to supply around 4% of the worlds demand for the rare earth minerals which support renewables such as wind turbines and other high tech equipment.
Early works at the Nolans Project were completed at the start of the current financial year, including a range of access and critical infrastructure, as well as construction camp facilities.
From here Arafura expects the total cost of the refinery and mine to cost approximately $1.68 billion.
The ASX 200 is flat at midday, sitting at 7,728.7 as seven of the eleven sectors are in the green, with mining leading the charge, up +1.66% as rising copper, gold, and silver spot prices drove the materials sector up in morning trading.
Meanwhile, selling pressure on the Big Four Banks has seen underperformance in the financials sector, down -1.50% after a run of downgrades from investment firm Macquarrie overnight. ComBank is down -1.36%, NAB down -2.32%, Westpac down -3%, ANZ down -2.52%.
For the broader market, investors are awaiting retail data from the US to gauge the next move from the Fed.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is reportedly considering ending its negative interest rate policy next week if the annual wage talks between major companies and labour unions result in significant worker pay increases.
This potential move marks a shift away from the BOJ’s decade-long monetary stimulus program.
According to Reuters’ unnamed sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking, the BOJ is closely monitoring the outcome of this year’s wage negotiations, which kicked off on Wednesday with Toyota Motor agreeing to grant its factory workers their largest pay raise in 25 years.
Such strong early signs have increased the likelihood that the BOJ will phase out its massive monetary stimulus measures.
If the BOJ decides to end its negative interest rate policy, which has been in place since 2016, it would represent Japan’s first interest rate hike since 2007. Additionally, the central bank would likely abandon its bond yield control measures and dismantle its program for purchasing riskier assets like exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
However, some BOJ board members remain concerned about recent weak consumption data, which highlights the fragility of Japan’s economic recovery. As a result, the central bank may postpone its decision until April to assess additional economic indicators.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled the bank’s readiness to phase out stimulus as early as next week, citing “fairly high pay demands” made by labour unions during the wage negotiations as a critical factor in the timing of an exit from massive stimulus.
Shares in Aussie Broadband [ASX:ABB] are down by -17% to $3.56 per share after the company lost a white-label deal with Origin Energy to Superloop.
Superloop [ASX:SLC] shares have jumped by 28% in this morning’s trading at $1.33 per share as the challenger telco upgrades its guidance on the news.
The deal is an exclusive six-year wholesale contract that will see the migration of Origin’s broadband customer accounts (currently around 130k) onto Superloop’s network.
The contract is expected to add in excess of $19 million in annualised earnings once the customer base is transitioned.
Superloop CEO Paul Tyler said:
“Securing the Origin contract is a key progress milestone in Superloop’s three-year growth strategy. It delivers a step-change in our customer numbers and cements our market position as a leading wholesale broadband and backhaul provider.”
“In order to create strong alignment and pursue growth in broadband customers, we are delighted to welcome Origin as a shareholder and to issue it an option to acquire further shares,”
The company has upgraded its FY24 guidance to $51-53 million, up from $49-53m range.
For FY25, it expects underlying EBITDA YoY growth of 60-70% and has flagged expanded capex spending to manage the increased number of customers.
Singapore-based telecom Singtel has issued a press release today to correct the record on its proposed sale of Optus that was reported yesterday.
It was revealed that Signtel is in advanced discussions to sell Optus to Brookfield (Canada-based private equity firm that attempted to buy Origin recently).
The deal would be worth approximately $16 billion and would relieve Singtel of the Optus headache after two decades of ownership has seen public pressure and large outages dampen its success.
Singtel clarified that while the deal is to acquire ‘a significant stake,’ it does not involve selling the entire company.
Here is the statement sent today:
“Singapore Telecommunications Limted (“Singtel”) seeks to clarify an article by the Australian Financial Review “Singtel in advanced talks to offload Optus to Brookfield for $16b.”
There is no impending deal to offload Optus for the said sum, as reported. Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term.
Our current focus has been on improving network resilience and conducting a CEO search.
That said, we regularly conduct strategic reviews of our portfolio to optimise the value of our assets and businesses and will explore all options to maximise shareholder value.
Shareholders of Singtel and potential investors are advised to exercise caution in their review of any media reports relating to Optus ahead of any definitive announcements when dealing with the shares of the company.
Singtel will make an announcement if and when there are any material developments which warrant disclosure in accordance with our obligations under the Listing Manual of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited.’
Good morning. Charlie here,
The ASX 200 had a mixed opening, moving both up and down before settling flat, down -0.08% at 7,723.5.
The S&P 500 slipped overnight after reaching fresh record highs, while the Nasdaq slipped due to a continued sell-off in tech. It seems the US is awaiting retail data out tonight for its next move.
In commodities, gold recovered some of its run after slipping over a percent yesterday. Today it’s up +0.85%, while silver jumped nearly 4% overnight to hit US$25/oz.
Oil prices also lifted overnight, jumping over 2%, while Iron ore continued to decline, falling -3.6% on Chinese weakeness.
The breakout was copper, which jumped to an 11-month high of US$4.05/pound after Chinese top copper smelters agreed on a rare joint production cut.
Wall Street: S&P 500 -0.19%, Dow flat, Nasdaq -0.54%.
Overseas: FTSE +0.31%, STOXX +0.35%, Nikkei –0.26%, SSE -0.40%.
The Aussie dollar gained +0.20% to US 66.21 cents.
US 10-year bond yields +4bps to 4.19%.
Australian 10-year bond yields jumped +12bps to 4.06%.
Gold is up +0.86% to US$2,175.64, while Silver is up +3.71% to US$25.04.
Bitcoin rose +2.14% to US$72,991, while Ethereum rose 0.78% to US$3,997.
Oil Brent rose +2.48% to US$83.95, while WTI Crude rose +2.1% to US$29.63.
Iron ore fell +3.6% to US$105.35 a tonne.
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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