Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
The ASX 200 climbed 0.86% today,with the Index reaching 7829.7 as the market reflected positive stock momentum seen on Wall St, with the S&P 500’s 35th record high.
On the local benchmark all sectors gained today, with a strong showing from the mega caps and Big Four banks.
The communications sector led the rally, with Telstra jumping 2.5% after announcing mobile plan price increases. Consumer discretionary stocks also performed well, as Wesfarmers added 0.4%. Major banks all advanced around 1.7% in trading today, while smaller Judo Bank also saw strong gains, up +5.84%.
Tech stocks edged higher, following the Nasdaq’s upward trend. In the US, Apple and Nvidia saw significant gains, further boosting their trillion-dollar valuations.
European markets closed slightly lower following France’s parliamentary deadlock, though the right-wing National Rally’s third-place finish was viewed positively for European unity.
With no major data releases today, investors are now focused on upcoming June US inflation data and the start of the US reporting season later this week.
Crude oil prices have steadied following a two-day decline as the energy market adjusts after the passing of Storm Beryl.
Brent crude hovers around $85.50 per barrel after a nearly 2% drop over the previous two sessions. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US standard, held just above $82.
Despite recent fluctuations, oil prices have shown significant strength year-to-date, buoyed by OPEC+ production cuts that have tightened supply. Market sentiment has also been bolstered by expectations of potential interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve.
Investors are now turning their attention to Powell’s semi-annual report on U.S. monetary policy, which goes to the Senate this evening Aus time.
This presentation is expected to provide insights into the future trajectory of interest rates, which could have broad implications for risk assets, including commodities and crypto.
Non-bank lender Resimac [ASX:RMC] is down by nearly 5% this afternoon after the company announced the retirement of its longtime CEO.
Scott McWilliam resigned after nine years in leadership and 21 years at the company and was described as a veteran of the sector.
Resimac will start the search for a new permanent CEO, while non-executive director Susan Hanses has been appointed as interim CEO.
Resimac operates in both NZ and Australia and has a market cap of $330 million.
The company is trading at 82.5 cents, falling -8.33% in the past 12 months.
The latest NAB Monthly Business Survey for June 2024 reveals a continued easing in business conditions, while business confidence saw an uptick.
Business conditions declined by 2 points to +4 index points, falling below the long-term average.
This decrease was primarily driven by a sharp drop in the employment index, which fell 6 points to 0, and a slight dip in profitability, down 1 point to +2. Trading conditions remained relatively stable at +10 points.
NAB Head of Australian Economics Gareth Spence commented on the findings:
“Business conditions continued their long-running easing trend in June. They are now below average, reflecting the slowing in the economy through late 2023 and early 2024.”
While surprisingly, business confidence saw a marked improvement, rising 6 points to +4 index points, reaching its highest level since early 2023. This boost in confidence was widespread, with increases seen in 7 out of 8 industries.
Manufacturing saw the biggest confidence gains, while construction continued to fall, dropping 3pts.
The ASX 200 started the day on a positive note, rising 0.72% to 7,819.4, with gains across all 11 sectors. This follows mixed performance in US markets, where the Nasdaq gained 0.3% while the Dow Jones remained flat.
On the Aussie benchmark, the communication services sector led the gains, with Telstra up over 2% following its mobile plan price increase announcement. REA Group also rose 1.1% in the same sector.
Technology stocks edged higher, mirroring the Nasdaq’s performance, with Wisetech and NextDC up +1.6%.
Among global tech giants, Apple saw a 0.7% increase, pushing its market cap to $3.49 trillion, while Nvidia gained 1.9%, boosting its valuation to $3.15 trillion.
Looking further abroad, European markets closed slightly lower after French parliamentary elections resulted in a deadlock. The third-place finish of the right-wing RN party was seen as positive for European unity.
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 1.1% to 82.7 in June, once again languishing in ‘deeply pessimistic’ territory.
The latest consumer sentiment index reveals a downturn primarily driven by concerns over household finances.
The “family finances vs a year ago” sub-index saw the most significant decline, dropping 8.4%, nearly erasing last month’s 9.7% gain. At 63.5, this measure remains at “extremely weak levels.”
Future financial expectations also worsened, with the “family finances, next 12 months” sub-index falling 4.5% to 92.1, its lowest point since late last year. Collectively, these two finance-related sub-indexes hit their weakest level since November.
It seems sentiments remain firmly stuck in their low levels thanks to mortgage pressure and high inflation.
At Fat Tail we have written a report on what this reality is for many Australians, Click here to learn more about which stocks do well in these hard times.
Automotive parts retailer Bapcor [ASX:BAP] has turned down a $1.83 billion acquisition offer from Bain Capital.
In a short announcement today, the company stated that the proposal ‘did not represent fair value‘ for the business.
The decision comes on the heels of Bapcor’s appointment of Angus Mckay, former 7-11 Australia CEO, as its new chief executive and executive chair.
Bapcor, which operates popular automotive chains, including Autobarn, Autopro, Bruson, and Midas, boasts a network of 1,100 outlets serving both mechanics and car enthusiasts.
The company disclosed that Bain’s Capitals unsolicited offer was received after the market closed on June 7th.
Shares in Bain are down by -1.18% in trading this morning, at $5.01 per share.
Telstra [ASX:TLS] has revealed plans to raise prices on its mobile services. Starting August 27, postpaid customers will see increases of $2-4 per month. Prepaid customers will face similar hikes beginning October 22.
The move comes as a surprise, considering it’s May announcement that it would forgo price increases. At that time, the company had modified its terms for consumer and small business postpaid mobile plans, eliminating the annual price review linked to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
In explaining the change today, Telstra said:
“In making these price changes, Telstra has balanced cost of living pressures it knows some of its customers are experiencing with its need to continue to invest to manage technology evolution and continued strong customer demand on its mobile network.”
“Over the five years to end FY24, network traffic on Telstra’s mobile network has increased by approximately 3.5x and continues to grow by 20 percent per annum. To help manage this demand, Telstra has invested $1.3 billion in mobile spectrum in FY24, and as this spectrum is deployed on the network, it is providing additional capacity to support more data, faster speeds, and a more consistent experience for customers.”
The ASX 200 opened up +0.68% to 7,816.0 following Wall Street gains despite lower commodity prices overnight.
Strong early gains by Telstra (+2.06%) and major miners helped lift the Aussie benchmark this morning.
All sectors are in the green this morning, with early big moves in energy stocks and mining.
Red Hill Minerals is down by –27.05 %, falling sharply after a large move upwards on 2 July.
Good morning. Charlie here,
The Aussie market looks to to open slightly higher, following the S&P 500’s 35th record close driven by major tech stocks.
Overall, Wall Street had a mixed session. This, combined with a retracement of gold and copper from their Friday gains and iron ore’s slipping price on the Singapore Exchange, could leave today’s session muted.
Tech giants led the charge, with Apple rising 0.7% to reach a $3.49 trillion market cap, and Nvidia surging 1.9% to a $3.15 trillion valuation.
European markets dipped slightly after France’s parliamentary elections resulted in a deadlock. The far-right RN party’s third-place finish was seen as favorable for European unity.
With big economic releases scheduled for today, investors are looking ahead to Thursday’s US inflation data for June, preceding the start of earnings season on Friday.
Market analyst Josh Gilbert noted,
“For the S&P 500’s projected double-digit earnings growth in 2024 to materialize, Q2 earnings must impress. Markets anticipate 8.5% year-over-year earnings growth, with eight out of 11 sectors expected to show improvement, led by communication services, technology, healthcare, and energy.”
In local buisness news, Bapcor rejected a $1.83 billion takeover bid from Bain Capital, stating it ‘does not represent fair value’ for the company. Bapcor also announced the appointment of former 7-Eleven Australia CEO Angus McKay as its new CEO and executive chair.
Name | Value | % Chg | |
---|---|---|---|
Major Indices | |||
S&P 500 | 5,572 | +0.10% | |
Dow Jones | 39,344 | -0.08% | |
NASDAQ Comp | 18,403 | +0.28% | |
Russell 2000 | 2,038 | +0.59% | |
Country Indices | |||
UK | 8,193 | -0.13% | |
Germany | 18,472 | -0.02% | |
Japan | 40,780 | -0.32% | |
Hong Kong | 17,524 | -1.55% | |
Euro | 4,968 | -0.19% |
Name | Value | % Chg | |
---|---|---|---|
Commodities (USD) | |||
Gold | 2,361.72 | -1.02% | |
Silver | 30.86 | -0.80% | |
Iron Ore | 108.75 | -1.50% | |
Copper | 4.6137 | -0.82% | |
WTI Oil | 82.24 | -1.44% | |
Currency | |||
![]() | AUD/USD | 67.37¢ | -0.13% |
Cryptocurrency | |||
![]() | Bitcoin (USD) | 56,672 | +0.96% |
Ethereum (USD) | 3,018 | +3.07% |
4:20 pm — July 9, 2024
3:28 pm — July 9, 2024
2:23 pm — July 9, 2024
1:58 pm — July 9, 2024
12:19 pm — July 9, 2024
12:01 pm — July 9, 2024
11:24 am — July 9, 2024
10:46 am — July 9, 2024
10:40 am — July 9, 2024
9:56 am — July 9, 2024
Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.
All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.
The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.
Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research
Copyright © 2024 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988