Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
Online luxury retailer Cettire (ASX:CTT) closed 22% higher on Monday.
The retailer has now gained over 300% since mid-June.
CTT shares have rallied over 115% in October alone.
Earlier this month, Cettire released a brief Q1 FY23 trading update. Sales revenue rose 72% on prior corresponding quarter to $66.1 million, with active customers rising 102% to 287,600.
CTT reported an adjusted EBITDA of $5.5 million.
Battery tech developer Novonix (ASX:NVX) was the top performer on the All Ords on Monday, finishing 33% higher.
Last week, Novonix, along with Syrah Resources and Piedmont Lithium, were beneficiaries of preliminary selection for grants issued by the US Department of Energy funded through the US$2.8 billion from the US Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
NVX’s wholly-owned subsidiary — Novonix Anode Materials (NAM) — was selected for a US$150 million grant.
Importantly, however, DoE noted that Novonix’s cost share would be US$877 million.
Currently, NAM is constructing a production site in the US that is expected to produce 10,000 metric tonnes of battery-grade synthetic graphite per year.
US #DOE will invest US$2.8b in a "portfolio of projects that will support new and expanded commercial-scale domestic facilities to process #lithium, #graphite and other #battery materials…"
Projects include $SYR, $NVX, $PLL, and $LKE partner #Lilac Solutions. pic.twitter.com/KF85TwFj6x
— Fat Tail Daily (@FatTailDaily) October 20, 2022
Have you got an inflation problem, Australia? If you want to solve it, I know a guy…
He’d laugh at our pitiful 6.8% inflation rate. Try 29,500% a month.
That was Germany’s inflation rate the month before Hjalmar Schacht was appointed currency commissioner for the Weimar Republic in 1923.
His solution for ending inflation is fascinating, and a wonderful rebuttal of all political and economic conventional wisdom today.
He locked himself in a broom cupboard at the Ministry of Finance and did nothing…
This might seem like an odd way to solve the problem of inflation. But, if you accept that inflation is caused by government policy, then it makes quite a lot of sense. To bring down inflation, all you need is for the government to stop causing it.
Here’s how Schacht’s secretary later recalled it:
‘What did he do? He sat on his chair and smoked in his little dark room which still smelled of old floor cloths. Did he read letters? No, he read no letters. Did he write letters? No, he wrote no letters.
‘He telephoned a great deal — he telephoned in every direction and to every German or foreign place that had anything to do with money and foreign exchange as well as with the Reichsbank and the Finance Minister. And he smoked.
‘We did not eat much during that time. We usually went home late, often by the last suburban train, travelling third class. Apart from that he did nothing.’
To be fair, Schacht did a great deal, initially.
https://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/how-to-solve-australias-inflation-problem-lock-philip-lowe-in-a-broom-cupboard/2022/10/22/
Lithium developer Vulcan Energy (ASX:VUL) has produced lithium hydroxide from its pilot plant in Germany.
VUL said the latest hydroxide sample produced graded 57.1% LiOH.
Vulcan said this threshold exceeds the ‘best on the market battery grade specification of 56.5% LiOH required from offtake customers.’
VUL shares were up over 12% in late Monday trade.
However, VUL shares are down 50% over the last 12 months.
Small cap games developer Playside Studios (ASX:PLY) saw original IP revenue slump year on year in 1QFY23 but work-for-hire revenue rise as total revenue rose 60% YoY to $6.5 million.
PLY shares were modestly down in late Monday trade.
However, PLY shares are down 50% year to date.
There’s certainly a lot going on in energy markets.
And it’s probably the most important industry in the world right now.
I think we can all agree that the days of fossil fuels are numbered.
But what comes next?
And how long will any transition take?
These are the key questions for both investors and policymakers.
And the cost of getting this wrong is immense — as Europe is in the midst of finding out.
As Yahoo! News reported:
‘Record-breaking electricity prices across Europe are damaging the continent’s attempts to build a reliable low-carbon supply chain and reach its decarbonization targets, as solar and battery manufacturers face mounting costs.
‘Rystad Energy research shows that 35 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV manufacturing and more than 2,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery cell manufacturing capacity could be mothballed unless power prices quickly return to normal levels.’
Unfortunately for Europe, they’re fast becoming the poster child of bad energy policy.
It’s an example of how decisions by bureaucrats in complex markets like energy tend to ignore or misunderstand the second- and third-order consequences of their decisions.
But it seems clear that the energy mix of the future is set to change.
And one word that keeps popping up time and time again is hydrogen.
Goldman Sachs put out a report earlier this year saying it could become a US$1 trillion-per-year industry.
And if it lives up to even half the hype, it could be a huge opportunity for you today.
Let me explain…
https://www.moneymorning.com.au/20221024/should-you-be-buying-hydrogen-stocks.html
Snap, the parent company of messaging and photo sharing app Snapchat, is down over 80% year to date.
Snap shares are now down 90% from their all-time high notched in September 2021.
Once valued over US$100 billion, the social media company is now worth under US$13 billion.
Yet Snapchat still boasts over 360 million daily active users, with over 75% of 13-34 year olds in 20 counties using the app.
So what went wrong?
In a detailed video, the Wall Street Journal breaks down what went wrong with SNAP?
A big reason for Snap’s downfall was Apple’s privacy policy changes introduced in April 2021, which made it more difficult for businesses to target ads at the right audience.
Announcing its third quarter 2021 financial results, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel noted Apple’s iOS changes presented “significant headwinds”:
“Our advertising business was disrupted by changes to iOS ad tracking that were broadly rolled out by Apple in June and July. While we anticipated some degree of business disruption, the new Apple provided measurement solution did not scale as we had expected, making it more difficult for our advertising partners to measure and manage their ad campaigns for iOS. We have remained very focused on driving ROI for our advertising partners, and we continue to see strong, consistent performance on our ad platform based on first-party data and conversion lift studies, and are working
on building flexible first-party tooling and measurement solutions to serve the diverse needs of our
advertising partners.“This impact was compounded by the ongoing macroeconomic effects of the global pandemic, with our advertising partners facing a variety of supply chain interruptions and labor shortages. This in turn reduces their short-term appetite to generate additional customer demand through advertising at a time when their businesses are already supply-constrained. The ongoing magnitude and duration of these global supply and labor disruptions are inherently unpredictable, and in the meantime we are focused on supporting our partners in this uncertain environment.”
Source: Snap October 2021 investor presentation
But Apple’s privacy changes weren’t the sole reason for Snap’s fall.
Other compounding factors — like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation and monetary tightening in key markets — all contributed to heave pressure on the business.
Pressure it wasn’t able to resist.
Gold stocks aren’t the only metal stocks rising on Monday.
Lithium stocks are also surging today.
ASX #gold stocks aren't the only metal stocks rising on Monday, with #lithium stocks also rising.
– $GLN is up 19%
– $NVX is up 12.5%
– $PLL is up 11%
– $VUL is up 11%
– $INR is up 5%
– $PLS is up 4.5%#ausbiz #EVs #BatteryMetals https://t.co/et0fCtnQyV— Fat Tail Daily (@FatTailDaily) October 24, 2022
ASX gold stocks are rising on Monday, helping push the ASX 200 higher. The ASX Gold Index surged almost 5% at market open.
Fat Tail Investment Research gold expert Brian Chu said gold miners rallied after a strong close for the price of gold in the US last Friday as the US Dollar Index pulled back slightly from its recent highs. A Washington Post article claimed that there’s talk within the US Federal Reserve that it will slow down on raising rates by end of the year, sparking a strong market rally where the Dow Jones gained almost 2.5%, S&P 500 up almost 2.4% and the NASDAQ rallied 2.3%.
“Given this market rally is coming off of rumours that are not backed up by evidence, I remain cautious about this rally being able to sustain itself,” Brian said.
Brian anticipates further market slumps on worsening economic fundamentals and for the US Federal Reserve to continue hiking interest rates.
ASX #gold stocks are rising at the open on Monday:
– $EVN up 6%
– $NST up 5.8%
– $RRL up 5.6%
– $DEG up 5.5%
– $GOR up 5.2%
– $CHN up 5%
— Fat Tail Daily (@FatTailDaily) October 23, 2022
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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