Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
The ASX 200 finished a challenging week as concerns mount over China’s economic slowdown, resurgent inflation in the United States, and the perceived overvaluation of Australian bank stocks.
The market has experienced significant turmoil this week, falling -0.56% today to 7,670.3 points and finishing the week down -1.20%. A long way off last Friday’s record close of 7,847 points.
Companies with exposure to China, particularly lithium and iron ore miners, are facing immense pressure due to the economic uncertainties in the region.
Major player Commonwealth Bank was not spared from the market turmoil. Its shares have fallen -3.11% this week to $115.54, a long way off its closing at $121.45 last Friday.
The recent sell-off in bank stocks can be attributed to Macquarie’s warnings about potential overvaluation, prompting investors to reassess their positions in the financial sector.
Emerald Resources was the ASX 200’s biggest loser today, falling -10.6%, followed by lithium producer Liontown Resources down -8.43% after recent jumps on positive news of debt facilities for its Kathleen Valley project.
The biggest gainer on the main index today was TELIX Pharmaceuticals up +4.68%, followed by Contact Energy up +3.78% on rising oil prices.
The ASX 200 is down by -1.45% around midday as markets heavily sell off amidst fears of re-accelerating inflation in the US.
The fears come after the US producer price index (PPI), which measures pipeline costs for raw, intermediate and finished goods, jumped 0.6% on the month, almost double the Dow Jones estimate.
On a year-on-year basis, the headline index increased 1.6%, its biggest move since September 2023.
Around two-thirds of the rise in headline PPI came from surging goods prices thanks to a 4.4% jump in energy costs.
Meanwhile retail sales increased 0.6% also, less than expected, while weekly claim fillings fell slightly to 209,000.
This all painted a picture of concerns that wholesale price increases would push back up inflation in the short term and delay the Fed’s next rate cuts.
Back to the Aussie Index, the ASX 200 saw 9 of its 11 sectors in the red at noon, with only Energy (+0.61%) and Real Estate (+0.11%) holding onto gains.
Iress [ASX:IRE], a financial software and data company, has announced plans to sell its UK mortgage business to the private equity giant Bain Capital for $164.3 million.
Iress acquired the mortgage business over a decade ago but said the sale represents a key step in its ongoing business transformation efforts.
According to Iress Group CEO Marcus Price, the proceeds from the sale will be used to reduce the company’s net debt position and provide further investment capital for Iress’ core wealth management, market data, and superannuation businesses.
This divestment comes shortly after Iress sold its OneVue platform business to Praemium, another platform provider, late last month. Praemium paid £758,000 ($1 million) upfront for the OneVue platform, with potential future earn-outs of up to £15.1 million ($20 million).
Notably, Iress had acquired OneVue just three years prior in 2020 for around £87 million ($115 million), which included the superannuation, managed funds administration, and platform units, with the latter now being transferred to Praemium’s ownership.
Australian computer scientist Craig Wright, who has long claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin under the pseudonym ‘Satoshi Nakamoto,’ was ruled by a judge at London’s High Court on today to not be the true Satoshi Nakamoto.
Wright has asserted that he authored the 2008 white paper that laid the foundations for the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, but Judge James Mellor stated the evidence showing Wright is not Nakamoto was ‘overwhelming.’
The Crypto Open Patent Alliance (COPA), whose members include Jack Dorsey’s payments firm Block, took Wright to court seeking a declaration that he is not Nakamoto. Their aim was to prevent Wright from suing Bitcoin developers.
Judge Mellor definitively ruled that ‘Dr. Wright is not the author of the bitcoin white paper’ and ‘Dr. Wright is not the person who adopted or operated under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto from 2008 to 2011.’
COPA celebrated the ruling as ‘a win for developers, for the entire open source community and for the truth.’ A COPA spokesperson stated:
“For over eight years, Dr. Wright and his financial backers have lied about his identity as Satoshi Nakamoto and used that lie to bully and intimidate developers in the bitcoin community. That ends today with the court’s ruling that Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto.”
A spokesperson for Wright declined to comment on the ruling.
Tabcorp [ASX:TAH] managing director and chief executive Adam Rytenskild has resigned over allegedly using offensive language in the workplace.
The company said in a statement today that the board ‘became aware of inappropriate and offensive language used by Mr Rytenskild in the workplaces which was inconsistent with his continued leadership at the organisation.’
The board said he will lose all his incentive awards and receive what he is entitled by law.
Mr Rytenskild said, ‘I don’t recall making the alleged comment and it’s not language I would usually use, but I have regrettably agreed to resign.’
Tabcorp’s shares are down by nearly 7% in trading this morning.
Good morning. Charlie here,
The ASX 200 dropped sharply this morning, down -1.22% around open, as traders pushed back their expectations of rate cuts in the US due to Producer inflation hinting at potential re-acceleration in wholesale prices.
Oil prices also lifted overnight, reaching their highest since November 2023, driven by a more bullish outlook from the International Energy Agency, along with signs of robust US demand and continued geopolitical risk.
Wall Street: S&P 500 -0.29%, Dow -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.30%.
Overseas: FTSE -0.37%, STOXX -0.15%, Nikkei +0.29%, SSE -0.18%.
The Aussie dollar fell -0.62% to US 65.80 cents.
US 10-year bond yields +10bps to 4.29%.
Australian 10-year bond yields +12bps to 4.13%.
Gold is down -0.63% to US$2,161.75, while Silver is down -0.90% to US$24.82.
Bitcoin fell -2.03% to US$71,508, while Ethereum fell -2.89% to US$3,880.
Oil Brent rose +1.27% to US$85.95, while WTI Crude rose +1.6% to US$81.08.
Iron ore fell -2.8% to US$102.55 a tonne.
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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