Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
Here’s the final post for you today, with a Bing-generated happy customer from today’s news that a record 110,935 luxury vehicles were sold in April 2023.
Sales of Lamborghini were up 62% on the year, with Aston Martin up 15% and Audi up 20%.
Signing off for today, I ope you all have a great evening.
The recent announcement by China that it is banning the export of some REEs has created some uncertainty in the market.
However, this could also be an opportunity for Australia to increase its share of the global REE market.
Rare earth elements (REEs) are a group of 17 chemical elements that are essential for the production of a wide range of high-tech products, including magnets, batteries, and electronics.
China is the world’s leading producer of REEs, accounting for over 60% of global production. This has given China significant leverage over the global REE market.
In recent years, there has been growing concern about China’s dominance of the REE market. In 2010, China imposed a temporary ban on REE exports, which caused prices to skyrocket. This event highlighted the vulnerability of the global REE market to Chinese supply disruptions.
Australia is one of the world’s leading producers of REEs outside of China. The country has significant reserves of REEs and several active mining and processing projects underway.
In addition, the Australian government is providing financial support to the REE sector in an effort to reduce the country’s reliance on China.
The news of China banning the export of Gallium and germanium further highlights the importance of Australia’s REE resources. Australia is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for REEs.
The country has the resources, expertise, and government support to become a major player in the global REE market.
If Australia can capitalise on this opportunity, it could become a strategic asset for the country.
China restricts exports of two metals used to make semiconductors and other electronics, a move that’s likely to raise costs for hardware manufacturers https://t.co/NF4lSC3ukq
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) July 4, 2023
ASX 200 Closed today down 0.35% at 7,253.2
The best-performing sector today was Telecommunications, up by 1.06%, followed by Utilities, which was up 0.62%.
Health Care and Financials were the largest two down today, closely followed by Energy and Industrials, which were shaken by Chinese Caixin PMI data showing medium-sized enterprises were still struggling to pick up steam.
The best individual performers:
The worst performers:
New solid-state battery technology unveiled by Toyota and Panasonic could drastically change the market for EVs in the future.
Toyota has been slow to move into the EV market, with promises of its first fully electric vehicle coming by 2025.
The company instead focused on alternate hydrogen and hybrid technology but has failed to see production and market share rewards.
with a leadership change in February this year, it appears the new head Koji Sato has turned production priorities to match its rivals.
“Toyota claimed it had made a ‘technological breakthrough’… that would allow an electric vehicle powered by a solid-state battery to have a range of 1,200km and charging time of 10 minutes or less.” https://t.co/8ATbufDTSv
— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) July 4, 2023
CommSec data reveals that the impact of rate hikes is not being felt evenly across the market.
Seen here by a notable increase in the sales of luxury cars.
Who’s sipping Piña Coladas, and getting caught in the rain this winter?
Aussie luxury vehicle sales hit record highs in June 2023. #ausecon #inflation #business #australia @CommSec pic.twitter.com/BnyQBTEmem
— CommSec (@CommSec) July 5, 2023
Some have pointed to delays in dealership orders for new car sales boost, but regardless the jump in sales shows strength in consumer spending still present.
Australian new vehicle sales totalled 124,926 in June 2023, the biggest number of monthly sales since June 2018. Sales increased by 25% on a year ago and 8.2% in the first half of 2023. Source: FCAI. #ausecon #inflation #business #Australia@CommSec pic.twitter.com/BDDHHcZF0W
— CommSec (@CommSec) July 5, 2023
As fixed-rate mortgage terms come to an end, borrowers may face the possibility of increased repayments, leading to financial difficulties.
The 4% increase in the cash rate over the past year could have a significant impact on borrowers, resulting in a surge in monthly payments in arrears.
This increase could potentially reach up to 63%, according to Canstar finance expert Steve Mickenbecker, who remarked on the problem:
‘Fixed-rate borrowers have not had the past year to acclimatise to higher interest rates. They have avoided the pain of adjusting their budget for higher loan repayments but will be on the receiving end of the Reserve Bank’s 12 cash increases over the past year all in one huge hit.‘
According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, about $350 billion worth of fixed-rate home loans, accounting for around half of all such loans, are set to expire this year.
The situation could worsen if the cash rate, as forecasted by NAB and Westpac, continues to increase in the future.
Mortgage cliff will send this to the gfc highs at current rates.
Also this little problem.
“Unemployment is the factor which has the largest impact on income and mortgage stress”
So many 💣 💣 💣 and only early days. pic.twitter.com/KOFuoC6pyH
— John Spitzer (@ASX1500) July 4, 2023
ASX 200 down 0.30% to 7,257.5 around midday
The best individual performers:
The worst performers:
Update as of 12:30pm AEST
AMP, has been ruled against in a class action lawsuit known as the Buyer of Last Resort Class action proceedings by the Victorian federal court.
The claim is related to a decision made by AMP in the past to lower the earnings multiple at which it planned to buy financial planning businesses from certain advisers.
The court acknowledged the loss incurred by two group members, namely Equity Financial Planners ($813,560) and Wealthstone ($115,533).
The court has only decided on the amounts payable to these two members, while further processes will consider the decision on other group members.
AMP is currently reviewing the judgment in detail to determine its next steps and will provide an update in due course.
The potential total compensation owed to other class members is unclear but is believed to be significant.
As a result, AMP’s stock is currently in a trading halt.
The ANZ Consumer Confidence Index 4 week moving average is at its 2nd lowest level in 30 years.
It's worth noting that this period includes the highest Aussie unemployment rate since the Great Depression. pic.twitter.com/4ZbZzZTOmP
— Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 (@AvidCommentator) July 4, 2023
Junior miners today posted impressive results across the board today.
Here are some of the updates:
Torque Metals [ASX:TOR] announced a massive gold mineralised zones at its Paris site with its first pass diamond drilling prospects. Best intercepts include:
35m @ 14.12 g/t Au from 157.85m (23PRCDD076)
2.49m @ 40.6 g/t Au from 167.8m, and
4.44m @ 20.82 g/t Au from 170.3m, and
1.2m @ 185 g/t Au from 174.7m, all within
14.76m @ 7.6 g/t Au from 168.13m (23PRCDD077)
1.04m @ 83.59 g/t Au from 181.34m, within
16m @ 2.73 g/t Au from 18m (23ODD001)
3m @ 12 g/t Au from 19m within
St George Mining [ASX:SGQ] lithium results for Mt Alexander project reported wide zone intersects with multiple pegmatites. Early modelling suggests a wide corridor that is awaiting drill testing. Early tests show peak values of 1.28% Li₂O
Patriot Battery Metals [ASX:PMT] Boasts a huge 6% Li₂O Spodumene concentrate in the preliminary sampling of its Canadian site.
Black canyon [ASX:BCA] sampling over the Wandanya tenement has delivered high-grade surface rock samples of up to 54% manganese from an outcrop that is approximately 300m long and 150m wide.
Krakatoa Resources [ASX:KTA] announced multiple rock-chip samples over 2% Li₂O in a mineralised zone of approximately 800m. Planning has commenced for an imminent RC drilling program for the area and newly identified Wilsons prospect outcrop.
Westgold Resources [WGX] announced today that it has achieved the top end of FY23 production guidance of 257,116 oz of gold. The company now estimates a Q4 increase in cash, bullion and assets of $24m, up from Q3 $9m.
Greenstone Resources [ASX:GSR] has updated it’s indicated and inferred resource at Coolgardie Mining Centre by 57%. Phase 1 has now been completed with 10km of drilling. Updates of the projects show:
Burbanks: 6,052,889t @ 2.4g/t gold for 465,567 ounces of contained gold (+68%)
Phillips Find: 732,960t @ 2.3g/t gold for 54,567 ounces of contained gold (unchanged)
American West Metals [ASX:AW1] continues to uncover high grades of copper at the Storm Copper Project in Canada.
The latest intersects show:
Drill hole SR23-17 has intersected:
15.3m @ 1.6% Cu from 59.4m, including,
7.6m @ 2.9% Cu from 64m, including,
3.1m @ 4.8% Cu from 64m
Drill hole SR23-10 has intersected:
9.1m @ 1.1% Cu from 62.5m, including,
1.5m @ 2.8% Cu from 62.5m, and,
1.5m @ 2.1% Cu from 65.5m
3.1m @ 1.4% Cu from 76.2m, including,
1.6m @ 2.1% Cu from 77.7m
Drill hole SR23-12 has intersected:
7.6m @ 1.1% Cu from 106.7m, including,
3.1m @ 2.1% Cu from 109.7m
Drill hole SR23-18 has intersected:
7.7m @ 1% Cu from 59.4m, including,
4.6m @ 1.4% Cu from 62.5m, including,
1.5m @ 2.6% Cu from 64
The XJO opened down 5.2 points (0.07%) and quickly recovered to now trading flat.
This signals a mixed day of trading as investors’ hopes begin to normalise after yesterday’s positive market news of a pause in the RBA target cash rate.
Expectations of two further raises by the RBA are now being shared by NAB and other market analysis, which is also weighing on the market.
John Lyng Group announced the 100% acquisition of Project Safety Holdings Pty Ltd and 70% of Link Fire Holdings Pty Ltd for total upfront cash consideration of $61.8 million plus an earn-out of $17.25 million.
The acquisitions are said to be part of the group’s 5th strategic pillar to expand further into ‘Essential Home Services’ to provide turnkey solutions for homeowners and property managers.
The cost of the acquisitions will be funded through a $65 million share raise.
Property services business Johns Lyng Group was expected to launch a $65 million raise this morning.
On Tuesday evening, it was reported that Johns Lyng reached out to JPMorgan investment bank and fund managers to gain their support.
The stock is currently in a trading halt.
Morning all early bird investors!
ASX Futures signals a weaker ASX 200 today. US Equities closed for Independence Day Holiday. The big news is coming from the mining sector today.
Stay tuned.
Market Update
All figures shown are from 9:15pm AEST
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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