• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Fat Tail Daily

Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

  • Menu
    • Commodities
      • Resources and Mining
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Iron Ore
      • Lithium
      • Silver
      • Graphite
      • Rare Earths
    • Technology
      • AI
      • Bitcoin
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Energy
      • Financial Technology
      • Bio Technology
    • Market Analysis
      • Latest ASX News
      • Dividend Shares
      • ETFs
      • Stocks and Bonds
    • Macro
      • Australian Economy
      • Central Banks
      • World Markets
    • Small Caps
    • More
      • Investment Guides
      • Premium Research
      • Editors
      • About
      • Contact Us
  • Latest
  • Fat Tail Series
  • About Us
Macro Central Banks

Higher than Anticipated

Like 0

By Bill Bonner, Friday, 10 March 2023

Citizens of an honest republic can decide for themselves when to go out of doors. But the subjects of an empire ask permission. They get bread; they must join in the circuses too.

‘Well…it’s one, two, three
‘What are we fightin’ for?
‘Don’t ask me ‘cause I don’t give a damn
‘The next stop is Vietnam
‘And it’s five, six, seven, eight
‘Open up those pearly gates
‘Ain’t got time to wonder why
‘Cause we’re all gonna die.’

Country Joe and the Fish

The news yesterday had everything ‘dropping fast’: Reuters: ‘Fed’s Powell opens the door to higher and possibly faster rate hikes’:

‘The Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates more than expected in response to recent strong data and is prepared to move in larger steps if the “totality” of incoming information suggests tougher measures are needed to control inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday.

‘“The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” the U.S. central bank chief said in opening remarks at a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee.’

Greater challenges

As we’ve been saying…the Fed has to raise rates and lower stock prices. It’ll keep at it until something goes very wrong. Then, when the going gets tough, the Fed is still likely to abandon its war on inflation. Soon, it will retreat, and conduct only rear-guard harassment operations. (On Monday, a businessman explains how the Argentine economy ‘works’ with 100% inflation.)

Money is our beat here. But the US’s financial system…and your money…face much greater challenges than just a bear market on Wall Street.

A friend sends this from the Argentine press:

‘Not sure what to make of this:

‘US Congresswoman warns Buenos Aires not to build Chinese fighter jets’

What to make of it? What in the world is the politician thinking?

We are exploring the events and trends that are likely to cause the ‘cluster’ catastrophe headed our way. Readers may sense some indignation and disgust in our tone; but ours is a prejudiced view. We liked the Old Republic.

Yes, of course, it slipped into sin more than once. Yes, it overspent occasionally. Yes, it made terrible mistakes and by mid-20th century had already bitten into the imperial fruit.

Way back when

But before 1971, no Congresswoman, no matter how dim, would have thought it was her job to tell the gauchos what to do.

Before 1971, the US’s money was still good. So was its reputation.

We remember when gasoline cost 25 cents a gallon, when we could get on a plane without a pat-down, and when we could open a bank account and get a free toaster oven, rather than a third-degree interrogation. There was no war on drugs, no ‘homeland’, and no ‘Homeland Security’…and no snoops reading our mail…or telling us what kind of kitchen stove we should use. And there were a substantial number of citizens, in and out of government, who still wanted to balance the budget at home and leave people alone overseas.

Yes, the US was, then as now, engaged in a pointless war…but at least there were people in the streets challenging it.

Today, the real ‘conservatives’ are all gone…the Democrats are all pro-war, Republicans too…and the citizens go along with everything — COVID Hysteria, war fever, debt, diversity, and dysfunction. The Fed says inflation should be at 2%? Sure, why not?

Permission-based living

Citizens of an honest republic can decide for themselves when to go out of doors. But the subjects of an empire ask permission. They get bread; they must join in the circuses too.

But people come to believe what they must believe when they must believe it. If they were told to stand on one leg and recite the pledge of allegiance, they would do so.

Even fruitcakes eventually go stale. Empires reach their ‘sell-by’ dates too. Now in its corrupt and degenerate stage, at home and abroad the empire implements its Bad Guy Theory. ‘You’re either with us, or against us’, say Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden.

Here’s an example. Ms Janet Yellen went to visit Ukraine. In her statement she made it clear that good and evil were butting heads:

‘Russia’s barbaric attacks continue — but Kyiv stands strong and free.’

Nor did she have any doubt about what side we are on:

‘America will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes’

So easy. So simple. Good guys versus bad guys.

But what a bunch of morons.

More to come…

Regards,

Dan Denning Signature

Bill Bonner,
For The Daily Reckoning Australia

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Bill Bonner

Bill’s Premium Subscriptions

Publication logo
Fat Tail Investment Research

Latest Articles

  • End of the (Production) Line: Rare Earths
    By James Cooper

    According to geologist James Cooper, safeguarding supply chains is no longer a matter of maintaining profits or avoiding production delays; this is a race for survival for household names like Toyota or Mitsubishi.

  • Virgin IPO: Another Sign for the Bulls
    By Callum Newman

    One of the points I made in 2024 was that the IPO market had dropped like a stone – a sign of a bottom forming at the time. That’s why the news today stick out like the proverbial. The Virgin Australia IPO is now on. It’s been brewing for 2.5 years!

  • I’m Reading the Market Pulse This Way
    By Callum Newman

    History is clear on this point: fortune favours the optimists. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to we had a solid run of years from 2023 to 2027 like we did from 2003-2007. I’m not saying it’s without risk, or won’t be volatile. But that’s my thinking currently until I see something to get mega bearish on. That’s the base of my gameplan. I’m hunting for opportunities with this in mind.

Primary Sidebar

Latest Articles

  • End of the (Production) Line: Rare Earths
  • Virgin IPO: Another Sign for the Bulls
  • I’m Reading the Market Pulse This Way
  • What’ll happen to Australia in the next sovereign debt crisis?
  • Crossing Borders: Why Aussie Investors Should Look to Canada

Footer

Fat Tail Daily Logo
YouTube
Facebook
x (formally twitter)
LinkedIn

About

Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.

Quick Links

Subscribe

About

FAQ

Terms and Conditions

Financial Services Guide

Privacy Policy

Get in Touch

Contact Us

Email: support@fattail.com.au

Phone: 1300 667 481

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

Fat Tail Logo

Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research

Copyright © 2025 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988