Easter Monday, energy chaos, and an even bigger lithium rebound!?

Happy Easter Monday.

If you’ve risen again and are reading this over a morning coffee, a toast to that.

The world is chaos, and we’ve been taught to be kind.

That’s our duty.

Speaking of chaos, this was written on Thursday before we found out whatever transpired over the weekend in the Middle East.

From a grand arc of history perspective, it makes sense that the birthplace of human civilisation is the most coveted and fought over bit of land in the world right now.

There are a lot of moving pieces.

And at the risk of repetition – every piece on the global board is commodities-centric.

I wrote about the commodities three weeks ago in Australian Small-Cap Investigator.

If you want to invest in commodities (and other high-potential small-caps) in a way that is deeply informed by geopolitics and technological advancement – I urge you to consider a subscription to this publication.

You can watch my latest presentation for this service here.

Seriously, check it out.

I believe in the service because I put my soul into it.

Now for a preview of what you get when you subscribe on this Easter Monday.

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From Australian Small-Cap Investigator
– 13 March 2026

War in the Middle East.

Call me an optimist, but this isn’t time to panic.

In fact, this war is throwing up some excellent opportunities.

Surveying our portfolio, we are heavily weighted towards commodities.

And things are holding up pretty well, despite all the doom and gloom you see in the headlines every day.

We hold long-term positions in this service, and we’re not going to sell just because of conflict.

Markets are definitely jittery though.

And I’ve identified one position that is cherry ripe for an entry, potentially next week.

So assuming this isn’t the four horsemen of the market apocalypse, you can expect a new monthly recommendation to hit your inbox next week.

For me right now, it’s all about chokepoints.

The places capital has to flow in a world where global adversaries are battling it out for control.

And there are some excellent stocks out there that fit the criteria.

I’ll give you a hint – your next recommendation is likely to be energy related.

Here’s why…

Because whatever happens in Iran, this should only focus the world’s attention on energy.

Our increasingly technological world is an energy hungry beast – and there are just a handful of stocks I’ve identified…IN THE WORLD (not just the ASX) that can meaningfully deliver what the West needs.

Yes, the oil price is going berserk:

Source: Trading Economics

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So that’s where the world’s attention is right now.

But what about the other energy, the clean(er) energy provided by lithium?

Here’s the lithium price chart:

Source: Trading Economics

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That’s looking pretty good!

And the recent export bans in Zimbabwe have definitely helped.

That’s about 10% of the world’s supply taken out of the system:

Source: Reuters

I’m confident that should the Iran conflict cool, the market will once again turn its attention to lithium.

Also this bit of news was significant:

Source: https://www.cthermal.com/

That’s right, a rapidly approaching US$4.7BN lithium listing on the NASDAQ.

It’s just one of many promising lithium deals I’ve seen in recent weeks across the industry.

It also shows you just how much appetite there is in the US for new critical minerals projects, even with a war on.

And guess what?

We have a great exposure to US lithium in [ASX:XXX].

[ASX:XXX] is also listed on the NASDAQ – so when the US market goes hunting for domestic lithium exposure, this should be a good home.

A recent capital raise took a bit of heat out of the [ASX:XXX] share price, which means I’ve put [ASX:XXX] as a BUY in the portfolio section of our website:

Source: Fat Tail Investment Research

As often happens in markets, you can get a second bite at the cherry.

Thoughts on the wider market

Our portfolio is holding up reasonably well in light of recent events.

I remember living through the GFC.

And if you were active in markets 6 years ago, you’d vividly remember 19 February, 2020.

We know what happened next.

For me, this doesn’t feel like a COVID collapse moment.

And if somehow the war does spiral the market downward, then I won’t be selling the bottom.

Instead, I’ll be positioning members such as yourself for what comes NEXT.

And for me, that’s more of the same: commodities.

Commodities have been used as an inflation hedge for decades.

If oil does indeed spike inflation levels in the West, then that should supercharge the capital flows to key chokepoints that need funding to get prices in the physical economy down.

Stay tuned for my next chokepoint stock selection, which will likely drop next week.

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So there you have it – this is what Australian Small-Cap Investigator is like!

To my knowledge, this service is the longest running ASX small-cap financial newsletter in the business.

It’s been around for roughly two decades.

When I was asked to helm this publication, I didn’t take it lightly.

It’s excellent value, good quality, and the culmination of 8 years of following ASX small-caps for a living.

Life has purpose.

Happy Easter Monday again.