Investing is always about tomorrow. Every recommendation…every analysis…every newsletter editor tries to look ahead in order to take advantage of it…or protect himself from it.
The Curious Case of Fake GDP
Fake growth produces high asset prices, increased sales and profits, and raises debt levels. It distorts the economy…uses up precious time and resources (capital!)…and actually makes us poorer.
Ghost Nation
Ultimately, output depends on someone putting out. But who? Native-born American women are not having enough children to keep up.
Scott Bessent’s Big, Beautiful, Budget Abomination
The more of a society’s resources that are spent on the feds’ projects, the less is left for everything else. Government borrowing in the US now ‘crowds out’ private borrowing almost completely.
In Defense of Real Numbers
Real numbers are the sacred language of a win-win economy. They allow us to quantify, measure, and compare everything from time to the price of tomatoes.
Heart of Fiscal Darkness
We only know if things are worth doing when and if people — of their own free will and with their own real money — pay for them. Otherwise, the transaction is likely to be a scam or a mistake.
An Abundance of Scarcity
Inequality is a fake problem. It is a symptom, not the disease itself. And when we set aside the headlines du jour, and look more closely, what we see is a whole edifice of fakery.
Two Strains of the Same Disease
It’s back to basics for the ‘liberals.’ Gone is the divisive claptrap — the dumbbell pronouns, DEI, the trannies and weirdos–even Black Lives don’t matter anymore.The winning formula is ‘free stuff.’
Higher House Hurdles
The median mortgage payment is today around $2,800, which leaves a lot of houses for sale and few people able to buy them. Sellers now outnumber buyers by the biggest margin ever.
Interest Rates, Observed
Lower interest rates encourage borrowing. That’s the whole idea. Debt goes up. Spending goes up. The feds ‘print’ more money to cover their deficits. Prices rise further.
