We expect the Fed to continue its rate hikes until one of two things happen: A big bankruptcy, crash on Wall Street, or other financial emergency will cause the Fed to panic and ‘pivot’ towards lower rates. That is our hypothesis number one: that the Fed will continue to raise rates ‘until something breaks’.
Lost in Space
The planet was here long before the human species appeared. It’ll be here long after John Kerry and his whole tribe have been turned to dust and scattered to the winds.
The Debt Ceiling Debacle…
Washington wags are saying that the ‘conservatives’ will insist on budget cuts before agreeing to increase the debt ceiling. But they say that every time the ceiling is raised. And in the end, the ceiling is raised without any real constraints on federal spending.
When the Roof Falls In
Earlier in the day, we attended mass at St Pierre in Le Dorat. It’s a magnificent church in a charming medieval town. The church is huge…built of heavy grey granite in the 10th century. It has tall columns and soaring arches…and paving stones worn smooth by 30 generations of believers.
The Fog of War
Take out the accidents, mistakes, and miscalculations, and not much military history would remain. What was Napoleon’s attack on Moscow if not a giant, boneheaded error? Adolf Hitler might have thought that mechanised transport made it possible for him to succeed where Gustavus Adolphus and Napoleon Bonaparte had failed.
Cradle to Grave
Today, almost everywhere, public pension programs are underfunded. Almost all the world’s governments are deep in debt. GDP growth rates have slowed to a crawl. Productivity — under the weight of so much social welfare regulation — is failing. And populations are peaking out.at…
Behold, Davos Man!
What a wonderful bunch of mental defectives and pompous poseurs. We speak of the whole Davos crowd…as well as their pet economists. It must be delightful — in a childish way, of course — to think you can not only foretell the future…but actually improve it before it happens.
Turn! Turn! Turn!
Today, most investors expect a repeat of the last 20…30…40 years. Not likely. Why? Enantiodromia. Markets are always seeking to become the opposite of what they are
Extraordinary Measures
It’s Martin Luther King Jr Day. A holiday in the US, but not for the team, spread out between Laramie, London, Buenos Aires, and Paris.
Davos Men
WEF is a sinister organisation. It believes the common man is a dope — which, of course, he is. But it also believes that (or rather its adherents) the great and the good from all over the world are geniuses — which they are not.
