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Market Analysis Latest ASX News

AMP Share Price Up: A Long Uncertain Road Awaits

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By Lachlann Tierney, Monday, 27 April 2020

At time of writing, the share price of AMP Ltd [ASX:AMP] is up 1.92%, trading at $1.325. We take a look at AMP’s latest update, and the outlook for the AMP share price.

At time of writing, the share price of AMP Ltd [ASX:AMP] is up 1.92%, trading at $1.325.

From a low on 24 March of $1.08, the AMP share price broke up to $1.48 on 17 April, representing a more than 35% gain in less than a month.

The AMP share price has since lost ground, and appears to be in a holding pattern as the market moves sideways:

amp trading view

Source: tradingview.com

We take a look at AMP’s latest update, and the outlook for the AMP share price.

Looking to shift away from AMP shares? Learn more about the two types of asset classes that we think could beat the market during the COVID-19 downturn.

AMP share price reflects cash outflows

Here are the lowlights from its most recent update:

  • Wealth management assets under management (AUM) of $116.3 billion for 31 March, down from $134.5 billion on 31 December
  • Wealth management net cash outflows of $1.9 billion up from $1.8 billion for the quarter from the same period last year

It’s hard to spin this kind of haemorrhaging of cash as positive.

The AFR’s recent Chanticleer column referred to ‘glimmers of hope’ such as the strong(ish) performance of its North platform.

North’s assets under management grew 26% in 2019 to a total of $47.6 billion.

AMP share price outlook hinges on its ability to adapt

If AMP’s North platform, along with AMP Capital, are the only parts of the business that seem to be holding their own…its pretty clear what has to happen.

Ditch wealth management (or transition it to a tech-based model), finally ditch the Life business and focus on doing less with more.

A range of fintechs, neolenders and neobanks mean a competitive environment for AMP now and into the future.

As such, despite a recent bounce, the outlook for the AMP share price could be called ‘clouded’ to say the least.

CEO Francesco De Ferrari faces a long and uncertain road to right the ship, and many shareholders will likely be hoping for an aggressive modernisation push, given the five-year share price slide.

We discuss the latest trends within the financial services industry in Australia in our daily e-letter Money Morning. Take out a free subscription today. We aim to inform and provoke, all with the aim of making you a smarter investor. Recent topics include the flow on effects of negative oil prices and the impending avalanche of debt brought on by the coronavirus. Learn more here.

Regards,

Lachlann Tierney,

For Money Morning

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Lachlann Tierney
Lachlann ‘Lachy’ Tierney is passionate about uncovering hidden opportunities in the microcap sector. With four years of experience as a senior equities analyst at one of Australia’s leading microcap firms, he has built a reputation for rigorous research, deep-dive due diligence, and accessible investor communications. Over this time, he has vetted seed, pre-IPO and ASX-listed companies across sectors, conducted onsite visits, and built strong relationships across the microcap space. Lachy is nearing completion of a PhD in economics at RMIT University, where his research focuses on blockchain governance and voting systems. His work is housed within the Blockchain Innovation Hub at RMIT, a leading research centre for crypto-economics and blockchain research. He holds a Master’s degree from the London School of Economics and an Honours BA in Philosophy and Politics from the University of Melbourne. Born in New York and raised in California, Lachy grew up a few blocks from biotech giant Amgen and counts among his peers various characters in the overlapping worlds of venture capital, technology and crypto. When he’s not researching microcaps, he’s most likely sweating it out in a sauna or dunking himself in cold Tasmanian water.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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