I hope you’re all set to celebrate Christmas. However the year has gone for you, let the next few days be a time to enjoy with your family and friends.
But before you cast aside everything and immerse yourself into the fun, food, and festivities, I’d like to slip in this article to keep in the back of your mind. You might even want to rock the boat a bit by dropping some of this in your conversations (preferably after a few drinks with like-minded friends rather than with everyone at the dinner table)!
Should you do that, YOU bear the risk!
What a year it was for precious metals! Gold is up by around 50-60% in US and Australian dollar terms over the year. Platinum nearly stole the spotlight with its rally in May to June that took it around 60% higher. For some time, it was the top-performing commodity for the year.
But it looks like silver might have taken the prize, more than doubling for the year. From August to October, it surged dramatically. A pullback in mid-October that lasted six weeks was merely a springboard for the next run that allowed it to sprint ahead of gold and platinum, and the honour of being the best performing commodity of 2025.
At the peak of the gold and silver bull run in mid-October, there were queues outside bullion dealers worldwide. Here’s a video that I took outside the ABC Bullion flagship store in Martin Place on Thursday 16th October:
With a phenomenal year for precious metals about to end, what’s in store for 2026? That’s what I want to talk about here.
In looking forward though, it’s worth looking back at how we got to where we’re at. This helps to set the context and our expectations. It’s easy to either lean too much on where we were and extrapolate or to ignore the past and let the most recent events shape what’s to come. Clearly neither approach will give you much value as that’s not how the world works.
So let’s look at how my predictions went compared to how things turned out, and what I’m expecting going forward (for what that’s worth). I’ll also cover my strategy to prepare for 2026, plus an offer for you to follow me on this journey.
Enjoying the view from sky high levels
I could still remember back in 2013 when I first embarked on my journey into precious metals where I keenly searched for commentary about precious metals investing. I listened to gold experts talk about how gold breaking through US$2,000 an ounce would unleash the wave of buying and a widespread recognition of gold’s supremacy over the dollar.
Despite gold trading at US$1,300 an ounce at the time, it would go backwards by another 20% in the next two years before it’d turn around.
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It took a while to get there, seven years to be precise. When gold hit US$2,000 amidst a world that locked down over the Wuhan virus global outbreak, the world became a completely different place.
Today, five years on, our global system is still wobbling from the damage caused by bungled government policies and financial bungles. The massive orgy of borrowing, stimulus spending, and funds shovelled into the Russia-Ukraine war has pushed many to take refuge in gold to avoid losing purchasing power.
For those who had bought and held gold and precious metals assets throughout the years, their patience has paid off substantially. No longer can the detractors laugh at them for holding something they can’t eat!
We might even use the famous line from Bart Simpson, ‘eat my shorts’, right back at those who took short positions on gold and silver and probably lost their shirts during this time.
It feels good to be at the top. The view is great! It’s worth relishing even more given how many thought that this wasn’t possible.
A sober word of caution: All that glitters…
Having gotten to where we are, it’s important to think about where this could go in the next year.
Please excuse me as I ask this question: how long have gold and silver been in a bull market in this gold price cycle?
12 months? 18 months? 2 years?
Let’s have a look at the figures below:
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Taking the lows in October 2022, the bull market for gold began around then so it’s been just over three years. Meanwhile for silver, the bull market began around March 2024 after the US Federal Reserve meeting. So that’s just over 20 months. Thanks to the size of the rally that took place, gold and silver’s bear market from 2021-22 looked like a benign correction. However, those who bought and held gold, silver and gold stocks during that period felt deeply the pain and frustration as capital dried up in this space.
Have a look at how much the ASX Gold Index [ASX:XGD] rallied from its lows in late-September 2022 to now:
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From the 2022 lows to the highs in mid-Oct 2025, the index rallied by over 300%. Individual companies, including large multi-billion dollar producers such as Evolution Mining [ASX:EVN], Perseus Mining [ASX:PRU], Genesis Minerals [ASX:GMD], Ramelius Resources [ASX:RMS], Regis Resources [ASX:RRL], and Capricorn Metals [ASX:CMM] etc. delivered even higher returns. However, the ride was rough. Many would have jumped off as they tumbled and came back much later in the recovery, missing out on the big gains in the early stage of the recovery.
Will we expect this to continue in 2026?
Let’s think about this.
Can a bull market continue? Certainly!
But the probability of it repeating the bonanza gains is less likely.
Even if they do rise further, it needs to have the backing of gold and silver continuing its run.
But this leads to the next question, how high can gold and silver go?
The higher they rise, the harder the fall
As much as I’m a precious metals bull, I’m not blind to the notion that 2026 may be a year that gold and silver hit a speed bump.
It’s not our precious metals that may face broader economic and financial market threats to cause them to pull back. The financial system is teetering on a delicate balance of a glut of liquidity needing to find a home and the ever-looming threat of a debt implosion that causes the liquidity to evaporate.
Gold may be the ultimate money but the current price bases itself on the amount of fiat currencies available in the system. If the debt implodes, gold’s price will also fall with the rest.
Moreover, the US-China trade war continues to transform global trade. That can work out in US’ favour, causing the US dollar to rise and potentially capping gold’s run. Or global trade hits a snag, which may spark a market crash. Or it could be anything in between, perpetuating the global stagflation.
Given how high gold has run, there are now more holders who are there for short-term gains rather than because they trust gold. They don’t care about the financial system, purchasing power or a market crash – they just want quick gains. That adds a layer of fragility. The same applies for silver and gold stocks.
It’s been good riding our precious metals assets higher. However, I’m beginning to look more towards the exit and hope that it won’t get crowded when we’re making our way out.
Finding value amidst a final surge for gold stocks
I don’t want to sound like it’s time to sell all your precious metals assets right now.
However, I feel it’s my responsibility to warn you to look over your shoulder and keep an eye on how high things are in the precious metals space going into 2026.
Remember how tech stocks, cryptocurrencies, and various commodities like iron ore, lithium, rare earths, etc. tumbled in the last three years after enjoying massive blowoffs.
It’s important to think of 2026 more like the end of 2021 than the end of 2019. Even if I’m wrong, your losses would be on opportunities to ride some of your stocks higher. If I’m right, not heeding my warning could be costly as your gains turn into losses.
Despite my caution, there’s one place in the precious metals space that still has room to shine.
It’s the explorers and early-stage developers – the riskiest of the lot.
Let me show you how the Speculative Gold Stocks Index has performed:
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During the last bull run for these stocks in March to November 2020, the index increased by over 250%. Individual explorers and developers rallied by as much as 7,000% (Chalice Mining [ASX:CHN] from March 2020 to November 2021).
In this bull market, the index is up by over 300%. Some companies still have more room to run thanks to their transformation from explorers to near-term producers. While others may pump and dump with investors rushing in for what could be the last upleg of the bull market in this cycle.
Whether you’re a winner or a victim depends on the companies you pick. There are more companies that will rip the gains out of your hands than those with genuine growth opportunity. I know that because I saw this happen in the last two cycles.
If you’re interested in strategies designed to capitalise on this lucrative yet high-risk opportunity, I have a Christmas special for you.
For a limited time, you can sign up to my premium gold stock advisory, Gold Stock Pro, at a massive 50% discount.
You’ll find out which explorers and developers I have identified as having substantial growth potential. Rather than trading short-term on momentum and investor sentiment, Gold Stock Pro focuses on long-term growth potential by using a portfolio approach.
We’ve opened a small window for you to get your first 12 months at half price.
But it shuts at midnight 31 December.
In the past four years, my members who followed my recommendations could have enjoyed multi-fold gains on Black Cat Syndicate [ASX:BC8], Barton Gold Holdings [ASX:BGD], Delta Lithium [ASX:DLI], Encounter Resources [ASX:ENR], Kingsgate Consolidated [ASX:KCN], and Southern Cross Gold Consolidated [ASX:SX2]. And while not all enjoyed such gains, we’re looking for more companies to join this list in the coming years, aiming to help you enjoy significant gains off gold and silver’s rise in the long-term.
So if you’d like to join us…at half price…please click here and enter the code CHRISTMAS50. This will give you 50% off the full price ($2,999) for one year of the service.
You’ll pay only $1,499. Like I say, this offer ends 31 December.
If you’d like to learn a bit more about Gold Stock Pro before you take this deal, go here.
Ok, that’s it from me for this year.
It’s been a pleasure to have your company for 2025.
Enjoy your Christmas celebrations and to a prosperous and healthy 2026!
God Bless,
Brian Chu,
Gold Stock Pro and The Australian Gold Report
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