The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part II]

You’ve heard me bang on about the era of extreme energy dependence…

Where more power is shifting into the hands of energy suppliers and AWAY from buyers.

As we’ve seen, the key losers in this current oil crisis have been Europe and Asia, regions that are typically reliant on imports.

Meanwhile, the US and Russia have emerged as potential long-term winners as we shift into an era of structurally higher energy prices.

The US is viewed as oil-independent, giving it the economic buffer to weather global shortages. While O&G is the key breadwinner for Russia’s economy, boosting its terms of trade.

But as I’ve hinted at in the past, events today could have sustained geopolitical consequences.

The weaponisation of energy

If events in Iran evolve into structurally higher energy prices, this could embolden major energy suppliers to become far more coercive.

Potentially pushing energy-dependent nations into deals and agreements they’d otherwise reject.

Example: We’ve already witnessed the weaponisation of key critical minerals, like rare earths.

Countries are already using supply chain dominance to push their own agenda and gain leverage in geopolitical negotiations.

Weaponising traditional energy would be the next step in this trend.

And that would deliver a frightening era of energy insecurity for those who rely on imports.

And it’s not a situation energy-dependent nations will be accustomed to…

For decades, energy has flowed readily, supported by abundant, inexpensive oil and gas supplies.

But today, war, geopolitics, supply chain fragmentation, tariffs, a lack of investment in new supply, and an unwinding of who sells to whom signal the end of ‘normal.’

It’s why I believe traditional energy could be the defining investment for the remainder of this decade.

It presents as a global economic threat but as an opportunity to those who invest in stocks, benefiting from higher prices.

And what makes this potentially more acute is that both Europe and China are abandoning energy diversification in favour of single-supplier dependence.

As I mentioned last week, by 2030, the United States could supply up to 80% of the European Union’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

This represents a mammoth jump from the roughly 57% share of LNG imports the US accounted for in 2025.

Meanwhile, China is leaning far more heavily on Russian supply, abandoning its long-term strategy of diversifying its oil and gas supply routes.

These dynamics are creating unprecedented vulnerabilities in the oil market that could reshape global economics and geopolitics.

As an investor, it’s worth considering how oil and gas stocks might respond to an environment that increasingly puts more power into the hands of the ‘haves’ over the have-nots.’

As I’ve stated many times over the past months, positioning AHEAD of these events isn’t just about looking for new opportunities; it’s hedging your portfolio against major risks.

Traditional energy should remain on your long-term watchlist.

As such, any major pullbacks driven by a de-escalation should be viewed as an entry point.

Until next time.