Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
The ASX 200 closed up 0.10%, squeaking through a gain today after a softer day of trading and finishing at 7,056.1.
The large energy stocks kept the ASX in the green today as Oil prices bounced off their four-month lows. Brent Crude climbed 0.5% to US$81pb.
Oil and gas big player Woodside Energy finished up 1.2% at $31.80, while Santos climbed 1.1% to $7.07 per share.
Three sectors finished in the green today: Energy (+1.39%), Discretionary (+0.62%), and Financials (+0.53%).
The worst-performing sectors today were Utilities (-0.93%), and Staples (-0.88%).
The worst-performing individual stocks on the ASX 200 today were Mercury NZ (-5.71%) and Star Entertainment Group (-3.13%).
Meanwhile, the high-flyers today were Coronado Global Resources (+3.22%) and Stanmore Resources (+3.16%).
Another great piece by investor Jim Bianco looking at the influence of bond yields on equities performance.
Rates matter!
——Taking a simple calculation using the 10-week moving average as a signal, we can see the following results for the S&P 500: investing in the S&P 500 when it was in an uptrend and rates were falling would have returned 14.5% annually. Compare that to the meagre… pic.twitter.com/Nal1COswZS
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) November 19, 2023
Far-right outsider and TV personality Javier Milei just won a surprise win in Argentina.
The often volatile Mr Milei has vowed to ‘take a chainsaw to the state‘ in his attempts to ‘exterminate’ inflation.
The country has been in the grips of an inflation crisis for years, with the average rate spiking since the country defaulted on its loans in the early 2010s.
Source: Statistica
‘Today the reconstruction of Argentina begins. Today is a historic night for Argentina,’ Milei told supporters at his campaign headquarters today.
During his campaign, Milei vowed to abolish the central bank and dollarise the economy in order to overcome a financial calamity that has left 40% of Argentina’s 45 million citizens in poverty and pushed inflation to 140%.
Here are some of his plans as he enters office on December 10.
Here is the man who was just elected President of Argentina, detailing his plans for the government.pic.twitter.com/RLaglC2OBj
— Spike Cohen (@RealSpikeCohen) November 19, 2023
The company behind the Australian Stock Exchange, ASX [ASX:ASX] has announced it has selected the bid for its replacement CHESS system.
CHESS stands for Clearing House Electronic Subregister System and is the computer system used by the ASX to manage the settlement of share transactions and to record shareholdings.
In practical terms, it allows brokers and other market participants to settle trades via CHESS by themselves or on behalf of their clients.
The 29-year old system has begun to show its age. The replacement process began back in 2015 but in 2018 a blockchain system was touted as the replacement for the infrastructure currently in place.
It would have been the first blockchain-based securities exchange in the world but faced constant issues, being delayed five times. The process was eventually paused in November 2022 and then scrapped. The total impairment costs for the failed update cost the ASX company approximately $250 million.
The new system will be a simpler modular system that uses an out-of-the-box solution from TATA Consultancy, the Indian-based software company that has products already used in Finland, South Africa and New Zealand.
The ASX said it expects to issue a bond of $200-300 million to finance the change.
ImpediMed [ASX:IPD] announced leadership and board changes today in an effort to ‘drive growth and manage costs‘ it said.
Rich Valencia long-time Managing Director and CEO, will step down from his role and be replaced by Dr Parmjot Bains.
Meanwhile, the CFO will also step down as well as planned board reshuffles as the company faces slowing momentum after a spurt of growth in the middle of the year.
The company is a medical software tech company that measures, monitors and manages fluid status using its devices and software. The focus is on early detection of lymphedema and heart failure.
In the announcement, the board said today:
‘The Directors are delighted to welcome Dr Parmjot Bains to the Company. Dr Bains will assume CEO and Managing Director responsibilities to develop and drive commercial strategy, initially focusing on sales and marketing.’
The share price has fallen sharply today, down by 7.41%.
The ASX 200 is up +0.30 at 7,070.8 on a relatively subdued day of trading. The main gainers today are Energy stocks which have seen recoveries as oil prices bounce off four-month lows.
The Energy Sector is up +1.28% at midday, while the biggest faller is Utilities, which are down -0.51%.
In individual stocks, the biggest gainer on the ASX 200 is Paladin Energy +3.87%, climbing with oil. A2 Milk Company also bounced off prior losses, up +3.24%.
The biggest losses were Mercury NZ, down 4.84% and BSP Financial Group, down 2.83%.
JPMorgan strategists outlined their latest forecasts for oil prices, saying their ‘base case’ scenario for the November 26 meeting was an extension of the existing oil output cuts into the new year.
Optus Chief Executive Kelly Bayer has resigned today after increasing pressure following the nationwide outage of the service on November 8.
Now Optus customers in Melbourne’s West have woken up today with little to no coverage again after a cable breakage impacted services.
In the senate hearing, Mrs Bayer attempted to dodge questions about her responsibility for the failure to plan for the outages adequately. The company said it had prepared for more localised outages with redundancies but not for the entire network.
It was also revealed in recent reports that 228 triple-zero calls failed during the 14-hour outage, but so far, the company has refused widespread compensation beyond 200gb free data to users.
Optus is not listed on the ASX, as Singapore telco company Singtel owns it.
In a statement today, Mrs Bayer said:
‘On Friday I had the opportunity to appear before the Senate to expand on the cause of the network outage and how Optus recovered and responded,” Ms Bayer Rosmarin said in a statement.’
‘I was also able to communicate Optus’ commitment to restore trust and continue to serve customers. Having now had time for some personal reflection, I have come to the decision that my resignation is in the best interest of Optus moving forward.’
Bitcoin has moved well into a bullish phase in the past month as prices now surpass US$ 37,431.99, up 2.32% today.
That’s AU$57,607.80 for those who prefer Australian dollars.
These gains came after a 5% dip at the end of last week, which liquidated $340 million in two days. The drop came after concerns about the SEC delaying its decision about the spot BTC ETF until early next year, leaving the bull run without a catalyst. But now it seems that BTC can continue its momentum without an obvious signpost to run towards.
Source: Alternative.me
In an unexpected shift in the tech landscape, the company behind Chat GPT saw its CEO, Sam Altman, removed over the weekend.
On Saturday, AEST, Open AI’s board, called up the CEO and told him the news in a shock announcement. The board claimed it had lost confidence in Mr Altmans’s leadership after raising issues about how ‘candid’ he had been in his communications with them.
No further reasons have been given, but the rumour mill has been running full steam. Some people have pointed to news that Mr Altman had been working on another venture in the background that the board may not have known about.
Others have claimed the move was a power grab by Microsoft to take further control of the company, which they have invested heavily in. Many point to the US$13 billion Microsoft has invested in OpenAI, however, reporting has shown that only a fraction of that money has been wired to the company.
In the midst of the chaotic ousting, tweets from top exec Greg Brockman have stated that he also intends to leave the company, or at the least leave his position on the board as a response. Now, three other senior employees have resigned over the last two days, and it seems Mr Altman and Mr Brockman are looking to set up a new AI company.
Meanwhile, angry investors are leaning on the board to try and get Mr Altman reinstated, and apparently, some talks between the parties have begun.
Where the tales move next will be one to watch. Mr Altman has had recent talks with the billionaire founder of SoftBank about investing in a new AI device as well as talks about a competing chip to Nvidia with Google partners. For now, his personal stock remains sky-high.
Good morning all, Charlie here
The ASX 200 opened up 0.26% to 7,067.9 in a day that looks to bring modest gains to the benchmark as Energy stocks are likely to bounce along with oil prices, which came off four-month lows.
Meanwhile, on Wall St, stocks continued their rally as the markets continued to celebrate the idea that cooling inflation would keep rates on hold in the US. The Russell 2000 marked its second-best week of performance of the year, while the S&P 500 capped off a third-straight week of gains.
Wall Street: Dow flat, Nasdaq flat, S&P 500 +0.13%
Overseas: FTSE +1.26%, STOXX +0.89%, Nikkei +0.48%, SSE +0.11%
The Aussie dollar rose +0.11% to US65.11 cents.
US 10-year bond yield flat at 4.44%. Australian 10-year bond yields -6bps to 4.49%.
Gold is down -0.12% today to US$1,978.44. Silver is down -0.18% to US$23.69.
Bitcoin is climbing again, gaining +2.33% to US$37,401.48 after testing the 37k mark six times in the past 10 hours as bullish moves continue. Ethereum gained 2.40% to US$2,006.04
Oil prices rose sharply overnight. Brent gained +4.13% to US$80.62, while WTI Crude gained +3.84% to US$75.70 after bouncing from lows.
Iron ore fell -0.36% to US$128.95 as the Chinese government intervened in iron ore prices to counter rumours of speculation surges affecting their supply chains.
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.
All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.
The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.
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