Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
The ASX 200 closed flat at 7,848.1 as markets had a subdued day of trading as investors were anticipating big market catalysts tomorrow.
We have both the FOMC meeting minutes released around the same time as Nvidia’s latest blockbuster earnings.
Both are due around the closing bell in the US (7:30 a.m. AEST), which should give the ASX and other Asian markets plenty of ammunition to move in anticipation of where global equity markets are headed next.
On the ASX today we had six of the eleven sectors up as Utilities (+0.90%) and Industrial (+0.49%) were the top gainers today. Meanwhile, lagging the rest, Discretionary was down by -1.37%
In individual stock news, Webjet had a strong day of gains, up 7.88% after strong earnings today. The company also flagged it is considering splitting its operations in two and listing both on the ASX.
Meanwhile, Ingham’s Group was down by over -6% as an unrelated egg farm in Meredith tested positive for avian influenza, otherwise known as bird flu. The company told shareholders that it had no nearby operations and was taking extra precautions at all of its sites.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained the cash rate at 5.5% today, a 15-year high, and cautioned that monetary policy might need to be tightened further or remain restrictive for an extended period if wage and price setters fail to align with weaker productivity growth rates.
The central bank stated that interest rates must stay at a restrictive level for a sustained duration to ensure annual headline CPI inflation returns to the target range.
In the March quarter, the inflation rate rose to 4%, still well above the RBNZ’s target band of 1% to 3%.
Interestingly, the current NZ government removed the ‘dual-mandate’ from the RBNZ so unlike many Central Banks who are concerned with both fighting inflation and maintaining employment, NZ only has one single mandate of controlling inflation.
Therefore hawkish moves like this are taken far more seriously by the market.
Following the statement, the New Zealand dollar surged by 0.8% to reach US61.40 cents.
Poultry giant Inghams [ASX:ING] shares are down by -5.9% in trading today after it was revealed that a farm in the Meredith area of Victoria had been quarantined after it had detected cases of the avian influenza virus, known as bird flu.
Inghams saw its share price drop by almost 14% around 2 pm before recovering after its announcement at 2:20pm.
In the release, Ingham said it had restricted all access to its victorian operations and had no ties to the farm, saying:
‘Inghams has no commercial broiler farms located in the affected region. As a result, there is currently no impact to Ingham’s operations or its supply chain, and the Company continues to supply the market as usual.’
BHP Group [ASX:BHP] is in the last 12 hours of its deadline to launch a formal bid for rival miner Anglo Ameican.
This comes as the Anglo board rejected the sweetened $43 billion takeover proposal and instead announced a pre-emptive split.
Anglo said it was accelerating plans to simplify the group and reward shareholders in a ‘radical’ revamp, saying:
‘Following completion of the asset review initiated during 2023, Anglo American plans to implement a number of major structural changes to accelerate delivery against its strategic priorities of operational excellence, portfolio simplification, and growth.’
BHP has been hoping to carve out the major copper assets of Anglo and make a play as the largest producer, but instead may have to settle for nothing.
Despite the issues with the offers, BHP shares have risen in the past weeks as fresh stimulus from China has come at the same time as copper prices have hit record highs.
Some have guessed that we are unlikely to see another offer from BHP, with Andy Forster, senior investment officer at Argo Investments, saying:
‘We saw last week that they had a bit of a bounce after rejection by Anglo,’ he said. ‘I think they’re going to stay disciplined. I’d be surprised if they’d come back at this late stage given the lukewarm response from Anglo’s board to the previous offers.’
Little has changed on the ASX 200 as the market remains up +0.14% at 7,862.6 around midday.
Seven of the eleven sectors are up today, with Mining (+0.72%) and Utilities (+0.52%) ahead, while Discretionary lags behind, down -0.80%.
High commodity prices continue to lift miners today, with the larger names seeing good gains while some mining minnows and juniors jump.
BHP is up +059%, Fortescue has gained +1.48%, while Rio Tinto is up +1.90%.
Webjet is the standout performer on the ASX 200 so far today, gaining +9% as it smashes profit estimates, while Telix Pharmaceuticals has also seen strong gains, up +5.46% after its GM presentation, which can be found here.
Webjet [ASX:WEB], the prominent travel company, has unveiled plans to potentially demerge its operations, separating the consumer-facing travel booking business from its agency-facing WebBeds hotel bookings division.
This move is being contemplated as the company reported a leap in profits for the financial year ending March 31.
The company’s financial performance painted an impressive picture, with total transaction value surging 21% to reach $5.59 billion.
Notably, Webjet’s net profit skyrocketed, more than quadrupling from $14.5 million in the previous year to a remarkable $72.7 million on a statutory basis.
Should the proposal happen, the two entities would become independently listed on the ASX.
Webjet’s Chairman, Roger Sharp commented today:
‘Having carefully weighed up the arguments for and against a demerger, the Board sees significant value enhancement through a potential separation of our two industry leading businesses and brands.
Our B2C businesses will continue to deliver organic growth through the shift to online, while separation will support our WebBeds business in its relentless focus on achieving scale in all markets, in a post pandemic landscape characterised by a reduced number of smaller competitors.’
Good morning. Charlie here,
The ASX 200 opened up +0.26% this morning to 7,872.4 after a stronger session on Wall Street last night as major benchmarks continue to touch fresh highs.
Equities are not the only ones reaching new records; copper, gold, silver, and now uranium ETFs are at decade highs and other industrial metals are also climbing.
Markets anxiously await the next blockbuster earnings from chipmaker Nvidia, which is due overnight in the US.
Wall Street: S&P 500 +0.25%, Dow +0.17%, Nasdaq +0.22%.
Overseas: FTSE flat, STOXX -0.54%, Nikkei -0.52%, SSE -0.42%.
The Aussie dollar rose +0.03% to US 66.70 cents.
US 10-year bond yields -3bps to 4.41%.
Australian 10-year bond +1bps to 4.24%.
Gold fell -0.16% to US$2,422.61, while Silver rose +0.83% to US$32.04.
Bitcoin fell -1.65% to US$70,251, while Ethereum rose +2.68% to US$3,792.
Oil Brent fell -0.42% to US$82.53, while WTI Crude fell -0.48% to US$78.28.
Iron ore rose +1.08% to US$122.10 a tonne.
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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