Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
The ASX 200 reached a new record of 8,269.8 on today, up +0.7%. This marks its seventh record this month, driven by rising commodity prices. The surge today was fueled by China’s new economic stimulus measures and Middle East tensions boosting oil prices.
Iron ore futures were the big mover in today’s market, climbing around 10% to reach US$112.65 per tonne. While the Australian dollar reached US69.41¢, its highest since February 2023, reflecting the overall commodity surge.
Energy and mining sectors led the gains. Beach Energy, Santos, and Woodside saw significant increases, while BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue also performed strongly with the boost in commodity prices.
Meanwhile, Star Entertainment rebounded 18% after Friday’s 44% crash as investors piled back into the struggling casino operator.
Here’s the latest from the new Fat Tail Daily video series.
Publisher James ‘Woody’ Woodburn is back! After an editorial trip in Dublin, Woody is back to discuss the key trends and offer unique insights into market movements.
In the latest video, James spoke with Diggers and Drillers Editor James Cooper.
Woody and James talk about how Dr Copper is back!
Copper prices have rebounded almost 15% since the lows of early August.
These moves have been thanks to a raft of new stimulus from China. What’s ahead for the market?
Click below to watch the discussion.
The Australian dollar climbed to US69.39 cents in trading today, gaining +0.46%.
That’s the highest since February 2023, as the dollar follows a surge in iron ore prices after China announced more stimulus over the weekend.
Iron ore Futures on the Singapore exchange are up by nearly 10%, trading at US$111.65 per tonne, the highest they have been since March this year.
The local dollar is on track to end the September quarter 4% higher, the best three-month increase in a year.
Biotech Mesoblast [ASX:MSB] has announced it will raise a maximum of $72 million in convertible notes from its largest shareholder, Gregory George, to fund its operations.
The issue is pending US Food and Drug Administration approval of Mesoblast’s Ryoncil to treat children with a steroid disease.
The coupons will be worth 5% of their face value per annum, and the conversion price will be roughly 25% higher than Mesoblast’s 5-day volume weighted average price of $1.32 per share.
Unless converted early, the maturity date of the convertible notes will be four years after the first issuance.
Mesoblast’s shares are trading up +3.11% today at $1.16 per share.
The ASX 200 is up by +0.73% to 8,272.3, reaching an all-time high shortly after the market opened today, surpassing its previous peak set earlier this month.
This feat was primarily driven by a substantial 10% increase in iron ore prices, which provided a significant boost to mining stocks.
The index is on track to close the September quarter with a 5.7% gain. Iron ore futures in Singapore saw a dramatic rise of over 10% in early trading, building on last week’s momentum.
The surge in commodity prices comes as China introduced new economic stimulus measures, sparking optimism for increased demand in iron ore, copper, and lithium. Benchmark ovember iron ore futures exceeded $US110 per tonne, a level not seen since July.
Nine out of eleven ASX sectors showed positive movement, with Materials (+1.33%) and Energy (+2%) leading the charge.
Mining giants saw significant gains, with BHP up 2.15% and Rio Tinto increasing by 2.25%. Fortescue emerged as the standout performer with a nearly 4% rise.
Other notable performers included Whitehaven Coal, with a 3.4% increase, and Woodside, with a 2.8% gain.
Star Entertainment rebounded 10% after Friday’s 44% plunge, while the major banks saw modest increases between +0.3 to 1.1% this morning.
Pacific Smiles Group [ASX:PSQ], a prominent dental centre network, has announced that its board and key shareholders are set to reject the takeover bid from Genesis Capital.
Major stakeholders MA Financial and founder Dr. Alison Hughes have indicated their intention to oppose the offer.
The company said today that Genesis Capital’s proposal falls significantly short of a competing offer from NDC BidCo, which values Pacific Smiles at $2.05 per share in cash.
Pacific Smiles also noted that Genesis has not increased its bid despite the company’s strong financial performance in FY24 and robust cash flow generation since July.
It’s worth noting that Genesis Capital currently holds a 19.9% stake in Pacific Smiles.
Shares in Pacific Smiles are flat in early trading today at $1.84 per share.
Australian lithium mining company Liontown Resources [ASX:LTR] has marked a significant milestone by dispatching its first shipment of spodumene concentrate from the Kathleen Valley project in WA.
The shipment, comprising 11,855 wet metric tonnes of concentrate, departed from Geraldton port on September 27, bound for China.
The company has also initiated spot sales, with an initial transaction of 10,000 tonnes priced at $802 per dry metric tonne of SC6 (6% lithium oxide concentrate). This shipment is scheduled for delivery in early Q4 2024.
Looking ahead, Liontown said it plans to gradually commence deliveries to its major customers, including LG Energy Solution, Tesla, and Ford, alongside its spot and ramp-up sales activities.
This development signals Liontown’s transition from project development to active production and sales, potentially positioning the company as a key player in the global lithium supply chain.
Liontown shares are up by +8.28% in early trading today at 78.5 cents, and we expect more action in trading as the day continues.
Good morning. Charlie here,
The ASX 200 opened up +0.44% to 8,248.7 this morning, as mining stocks will carry today’s trading as commodity markets see fresh life.
Over the weekend, China once again lowered its interest rates and released plans to issue 2 trillion yuan (US$284 billion) in special sovereign bonds to stimulate its economy.
The move came after China’s industrial profits fell for the first time since March, and markets had largely shrugged off prior stimulus as insufficient.
Iron ore Futures on the Singapore Exchange jumped as a response, now up +10.14% to US$112.45 per tonne.
On Wall Street, markets eased from recent highs after the latest August data showed some signs of weakness for the US economy.
August core PCE was up 0.1% month-on-month, below the 0.2% consensus.
US Personal Spending was up 0.2% month-on-month, below the 0.3% consensus and down again from last month.
The personal spending data was of particular concern for many traders as signs of weakness in retail were considered ‘not enough’ to warrant another 50bp cut.
September’s employment report next week will probably be the big sticking point for many investors when it comes to assessing the US economy’s future.
On the ASX today, we’ll be watching Pacific Smiles as it once again rejects Genesis’ bid and Iron ore miners after today’s jump.
Name | Value | % Chg | |
---|---|---|---|
Major Indices | |||
S&P 500 | 5,738 | -0.13% | |
Dow Jones | 42,313 | +0.33% | |
NASDAQ Comp | 18,119 | -0.39% | |
Russell 2000 | 2,224 | +0.67% | |
Country Indices | |||
UK | 8,320 | +0.43% | |
Germany | 19,473 | +1.22% | |
Euro | 5,067 | +0.69% | |
Japan | 39,829 | +2.32% | |
Hong Kong | 20,632 | +3.55% |
Name | Value | % Chg | |
---|---|---|---|
Commodities (USD) | |||
Gold | 2,663 | +0.37% | |
Silver | 31.81 | +0.57% | |
Iron Ore | 112.50 | +10.14% | |
Copper | 4.642 | +2.48% | |
WTI Oil | 68.20 | +0.03% | |
Currency | |||
AUD/USD | 69.16¢ | +0.15% | |
Cryptocurrency | |||
Bitcoin (USD) | 65,601 | -0.16% | |
Ethereum (USD) | 2,654 | -0.70% |
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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