Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
Research firm BDO Australia has published its quarterly mining exploration spending report focused on ASX-listed explorers.
Exploration spend for the September quarter reached a record high of $1.07 billion, surpassing the previous record set in the June quarter. The $1.07 billion is the highest spend since BDO began its analysis in June 2013.
As we’ve covered earlier, BDO is noticing a shift in spending priority. Gold, oil, and gas are no longer the biggest beneficiaries of exploration inflows. Battery minerals are on the rise:
Historically, the top exploration spends of the sector have been dominated by gold and oil and gas companies, however, our expectation for the growing prominence in battery mineral exploration became evident this quarter, with four battery mineral companies accounting for the top 10 exploration spends. This expectation follows our observation from prior quarters, where there was a surge in funding towards battery minerals from both equity and debt markets.
What’s more, the battery minerals sector accounts for a disproportionate share of the quarter’s IPOs. This phenomenon lends credence to the proposition that future facing commodities continue to demonstrate resilience against a backdrop of a broader economic slowdown. Additionally, with the possibility of China’s economic reopening on the horizon, this resilience is likely to persist into the foreseeable future.
Source: BDO Australia
Magnis Energy responded to the Australian Financial Review’s article reporting that investment bank HSBC was courting investors to fund MNS’s majority-owned battery maker iM3NY based in New York.
MNS confirmed iM3NY commissioned HSBC to ‘assist with its funding requirements for the expansion at its lithium-ion battery plant in Endicott, NY.’
Magnis has not decided whether it will participate in iM3NY’s funding requirements.
MNS is currently up 2.7%.
Lithium stock Magnis Energy (ASX:MNS) — majority owner of New York-based ‘gigafactory’ battery maker Imperium3 New York (iM3NY) — paused trading on Thursday, likely precipitated by the Australian Financial Review reporting investment bank HSBC is seeking investors to fund iM3NY’s expansion.
As the AFR reported yesterday:
Street Talk can reveal HSBC’s bankers have made a six point pitch for Imperium3 New York (iM3NY), the US “gigafactory” battery maker that wants to ramp up production more than 30-times before the end of the decade and is about 60 per cent owned by ASX-listed Magnis Energy.
The bankers told potential investors that they were seeking to raise $300 million to fund capital expansion from 1 gigawatt a year to 5 gigawatts by 2024, and a $200 million commitment to support future capacity initiatives.
The longer-term plan is to get to 38 gigawatts by 2030.
The equity funding could help iM3NY access US government backing, the pitch said, referring to the same sort of US Department of Energy grants handed to ASX-listed rival battery plays Novonix and Syrah Resources in October.
If the gigafactory owner is worth $1.5 billion, Magnis Energy’s stake would be worth about $900 million. The group had a $350 million market capitalisation on Wednesday.
Here’s a trick question for you, what was the most traded global good in 2020?
Gold is a decent guess, but no…
Cars are still a relatively strong contender, but also no…
Oil is a close second and has long been in the number one spot…
The correct answer is, in fact, semiconductors.
Take a look for yourself:
Source: Deutsche Bank/OEC
In fact, since 2015, 15% of all globally traded goods have been tied to semiconductors. These increasingly tiny and powerful electronic chips are rapidly becoming a prized commodity.
When you think about it, that shouldn’t really be a big surprise. Almost everything has some sort of semiconductor in it nowadays — whether it be the obvious electronic devices or even things like fridges and washing machines.
Our homes, our offices, and our cars are all filled with semiconductors. They have become as integral to our society and lives as the raw materials that make up everything else.
And that’s why now, more than ever, governments are scrambling to secure and develop their own production of these important chips. After all, just like we’re seeing in a range of industries, the race to move supply chains away from China is a big factor…
https://www.moneymorning.com.au/20221201/the-worlds-most-important-commodity-has-changed.html
Overnight, the US Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell stoked a market rally with his remarks on the economic outlook in a speech in Washington.
Powell said monetary policy acts with a lag and given the steep interest rate hikes in recent months, it makes sense for the central bank to ease up.
Powell said the ‘time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.’
The market took that as a bullish sign.
But Powell’s comments immediately after should give participants pause:
“Given our progress in tightening policy, the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level. It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time. History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.”
#Powell signaled rate moderation but also said:
"Moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control #inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level." #Fed
— Fat Tail Daily (@FatTailDaily) November 30, 2022
Remarks by Chair Powell on economic outlook, inflation, and the labor market: https://t.co/NdMQeiEZWQ
Watch live: https://t.co/Tgzqyq713g— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) November 30, 2022
The Wall Street Journal reported that the US dollar is on track to end November with its biggest monthly loss in over ten years.
The WSJ Dollar Index — a measure of US dollar strength against a basket of other currencies — fell 5% in November, the largest monthly fall since July 2010.
Major US indexes surged overnight following comments from US Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell.
Powell signalled that the central bank will look to ease the pace of interest rate hikes in the months ahead.
In turn, the S&P 500 closed 3.1% higher. The Dow rose 2.2%. The Nasdaq Composite ended 4.4% higher.
Bitcoin — a barometer of risk-on appetite — crossed above US$17,000. Bitcoin is currently hovering around US$17,110.
Tech behemoths also fared well.
Meta closed 7.9% higher. Apple closed 4%. Netflix closed 9%. And Alphabet rose 5%.
Sam Bankman-Fried, founder and ex-CEO of disgraced centralised crypto exchange FTX, is fielding questions at the New York Times’s DealBook Summit.
You can watch it live here.
Bankman-Fried — often called by the abbreviated SBF — fielded questions alleging fraud and mishandling of customer funds. In response, SBF said he ‘never tried to commit fraud on anyone.’
He also answered he ‘wasn’t trying to co-mingle funds’.
In his first live interview since the crypto firm he founded collapsed, Sam Bankman-Fried said he had “made a lot of mistakes” and “didn’t ever try to commit fraud on anyone.” Watch his conversation with @andrewrsorkin live: https://t.co/Zq5v4GdS5A pic.twitter.com/bRRqjwnVo0
— DealBook (@dealbook) November 30, 2022
Coming up in a moment. The Interview. @SBF_FTX. Hit this to watch for free from anywhere. https://t.co/e8hgFoGDjs
— Andrew Ross Sorkin (@andrewrsorkin) November 30, 2022
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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