The ASX 200 closed up +0.11% at 7,712.5 with little movement throughout the session as the market awaits the key February CPI data for the US due out this evening.

The biggest change today was a sharp drop in Iron ore futures which hit a four-month low as data from China once again showed an economy struggling to recover.

Seven of the eleven sectors finished up today, with Technology (+1.15%) and Utilities (+0.88%) ahead of the rest, while Energy (-0.77%) stocks were the worst performers as Woodside Energy fell -1.16% and Yancoal Australia dropped -8%.

The top performer on the ASX 200 today was Bellevue Gold, up over 10% as gold prices remained at record highs. Alumina (+8.09%) was also a top performer today as the aluminium company announced a takeover offer from US-based Alcoa, with the two signing a scheme implementation deed.

Expect a busy day on the markets tomorrow as Inflation data in the US will give the market direction for the remainder of the month.

QV Equities is up by 6.5%, and WAM Leaders gained 0.2% on plans to merge both entities.

The scheme agreement would see the two combine into a new entity with an increase of net assets of around $238 million.

WAM Leaders’ Chairman and Chief Investment Officer Geoff Wilson AO said:

“The WAM Leaders Board of Directors is confident that the Scheme will deliver benefits to WAM Leaders shareholders by creating a larger capital and shareholder base.

 

This expansion will further enhance WAM Leaders’ size and relevance in the market, leading to increased access to market opportunities.”

The deal is still subject to regulatory approval and a shareholder vote, which is expected to be held late June 2024.

While still low, the latest NAB business survey has seen an uptick in business confidence in the future.

The two major points of concern seen in the data were high labour costs as wages begin to outstrip inflation and softer forward orders.

Overall business confidence is now at 0.3, just above the pessimism line, but a marked improvement from numbers seen through 2023.

Here’s IFM Economist with the full charts below.

NAB business survey, conditions tick higher while confidence remains weak, notable that labour cost growth remains pretty elevated and forward orders are pretty soft pic.twitter.com/wL6agTdnxG

— Alex Joiner 🇦🇺 (@IFM_Economist) March 12, 2024

For those of you who want an update on the latest movements in the Magnificent Seven, my first piece in Livewire is now live.

You can find it below:

The Magnificent Seven Stumble: Cracks Appear in Market Titans

The ASX 200 is up by 0.21% at 7,720.5 around midday as gains in the Big Four and Tech outweighed losses in mining and energy stocks.

The big banks bounced after yesterday’s large sell-off, with Westpac up over 1% and the others up 0.2-0.5%.

In energy stocks, a -9.07% drop in Yancoal Australia has brought down the sector -0.58% around midday, while mega caps Woodside and Santos are also both down around -0.8%.

Rising concerns about China have sent Iron ore prices falling sharply overnight, dragging down BHP -1% and Fortescue -0.7%.

The top peformer around lunch is Bellevue Gold up nearly 10% as gold continues to reach higher with nine straigh sessions of gains.

Meanwhile, in other news ex-RBA governor Philip Lowe has been appointed to Future Generation Australia charitable funds managagment, his first listed board appointment since leaving the RBA last year.

Lithium producer Pilbara Minerals [ASX:PLS] has secured a new agreement to supply spodumene concentrate, a key battery material, to Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group, a major lithium chemicals company.

Both companies view this partnership as crucial to their growth strategies within the expanding lithium battery market. Pilbara Minerals sees it as an opportunity to solidify their position as a key supplier, while Yahua gains a reliable source of high-quality material.

This agreement strengthens the existing relationship between the two companies and allows Yahua to meet growing demand from battery manufacturers like Tesla and LG Chem.

The three-year deal starting in 2024 will see Pilbara Minerals supply a minimum of 20,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate to Yahua in the first year, with the option to increase that amount to 80,000 tonnes. Over the following two years, the minimum supply will rise to 100,000 tonnes with the option to reach 160,000 tonnes each year.

Pilbara shares are up 3.8% in trading this morning at $4.15 per share, a 14.5% gain in the past month alone.

Alumina [ASX:AWC] has signed a binding scheme implementation deed with US-based Alcoa [NYSE:AA] to buy 100% of the fully paid shares of Alumina.

Under the terms, Alumina shareholders will receive 0.02854 shares of Alcoa stock for each Alumina share held.

That would be a 19.5% premium to the average exchange ratio over the past 12 months.

The deal is subject to several regulatory approvals and a shareholder vote, which is expected to occur in 3Q 2024.

Shares in Alumina are up by 7.61% in trading this morning at $1.27 per share.

Good morning. Charlie here,

The ASX 200 opened flat at -0.0.% to 7,702.2, as the index waits for a clearer macro picture to emerge.

Bitcoin continued with its sixth straight day of gains, reaching a record US$72,880 as now other smaller altcoins begin to surge as the crypto market enters a euphoria phase.

A record US$2.7 billion flowed into crypto assets last week.

These gains came as equity markets sold off ahead of the important February CPI data in the US. Faltering by the Magnificent Seven has seen tech stocks drop, pushing down the major indices.

The Nikkei 225 saw the biggest drop, falling over 2% as tech stocks pulled the market down.

Meanwhile, China recorded its first month of inflation after four months of deflation with the country’s CPI climbing 0.7% YoY in February.

Iron ore saw its lowest price in four months due to continued concerns about China.

Gold continued its bull run with its ninth straight session of gains, pushing the commodity into peak froth levels and putting the wider market in an interesting position of once again being almost completely at the mercy of the Fed’s whims and the market’s interpretation of inflation data through the Fed’s eyes.

If we get another lumpy report and inflation is higher than hoped, further selling pressure on markets could occur, but this is probably unlikely due to the lower oil and gas prices.

At this stage, the consensus forecasts for the February CPI numbers are:

Core inflation 0.3% month-on-month, down from a 0.4% rise in January.

Core inflation 3.7%, down from 3.9% in January.

Headline inflation 0.4% month-on-month, up from 0.3% in January.

Headline inflation 3.1%, unchanged from January.

Wall Street: S&P 500 -0.11%, Dow +0.12%, Nasdaq -0.41%.

Overseas: FTSE +0.12%, STOXX -0.62%, Nikkei -2.19%, SSE +0.74%.

The Aussie dollar fell -0.14% to US 66.12 cents.

US 10-year bond yields +2bps to 4.10%.

Australian 10-year bond yields flat at 3.97%.

Gold is flat at US$2,182.59, while Silver is up +0.41% to US$24.50.

Bitcoin rose +5.64% to US$72,612, while Ethereum rose 5.87% to US$4,067.

Oil Brent rose +0.45% to US$82.45, while WTI Crude rose +0.15% to US$78.13.

Iron ore fell -6.8% to US$107.35 a tonne.