Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
ASX 200 closed its session flat after a subdued day of trading that matched hesitation seen on Wall St after weaker-than-expected numbers from the Big banks.
US markets will be closed overnight as they celebrate Martin Luther King Day, likely continuing our softer trading sentiment.
Bucking those trends were Energy and Retail stocks. In energy, the biggest movers were Boss Energy and Paladin Energy, the two major uranium players that saw strong gains as uranium prices went over US$100/lb for the first time since 2007.
The Energy sector closed up 2.11% as further attacks by Houthi militants, this time on US warships, have kept the price of oil slowly climbing as fears outweigh technical demand.
Telstra also lifted part of the market, gaining nearly 2% in trading today to close the telecom sector up 1.06%.
Meanwhile, in retail, the Discretionary sector closed up +0.38% as Super Retail Group gained 6% after signalling $2b in sales for 1H24. JB Hi-FI closed up 3.85% as consumer sentiment improved, with the ANZ Roy-Morgan Consumer Confidence Index at an 11-month high.
Qantas [ASX:QAN] shares have taken another hit today as the company faces a new legal battle.
Shares are down by -3.60% today, trading at $5.21 per share.
This time, with its US workforce over allegations it underpaid engineers at its Los Angeles base as much as US$10 million.
The group of engineers had originally claimed US$6.2 million for losses, but Qantas responded, saying if the allegations were true, the sum would be nearer to US$10.5.
This rather confusing back and forth meant the figure was over the threshold, so it must been heard by the US Federal Court rather than local.
In a statement, Qantas’s senior manager for people in LA, Jessykah Flower, said she did not have the authority to determine wages because the airline’s management and board were based in Australia.
“All major business decisions – including human resources and payroll-related decisions concerning non-exempt staff in California – are made by executives and officers in Australia,” Ms Flower said.
“I do not have the authority to implement any payroll practice or policy without approval of managers and executives in Australia.”
Santos [ASX:STO] has just won its major court battle for the future of its $5.7 billion Barossa Gas Project in the Northern Territory.
Santos has seen its shares jump by 3.31% after the news that the project that has been on hold since September 2022 can continue.
The Tiwi Islanders had filed a motion to block the project, arguing the pipeline would damage the Sea Country, dreaming tracks and areas of cultural significance to their people.
Judge Justice Charlesworth said she was not satisfied the Tiwi Islanders had shown that their belief of potential damage to the area was an idea widely held by the local people.
The ruling means the company will continue pipeline construction to bring gas to Darwin before shipping the LNG to South Korea and Japan.
An interesting chart showing the current environment across global equity markets.
Would you consider this a bearish or bullish case for the ASX or Wall St for 2024?
Sitting a bit up from the middle of the pack, the Australian market could present a solid case for a safer approach to investing than the overheated US markets.
This chart is truly revealing.
The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade.
It's time to buy low & sell high.
👇👇👇 pic.twitter.com/MpxIthvRJz
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 14, 2024
The ASX 200 is flat around midday as the benchmark pared the morning’s losses as retail and energy stocks lifted the index.
Energy stocks were the best performers, with the sector up +2.06% as Uranium future prices reached over US$100/lb for the first time since 2007, sending local uranium players Boss Energy up by 6.68% and Paladin Energy up by nearly 10%.
In Retail, the biggest gains were seen by Super Retail Group, whose shares jumped by 6% after it said it expected 1H24 sales to be a record $2 billion.
Investors also continued to buy JB Hi-Fi and Premier Investments as consumer sentiment figures reached an 11-month high.
Zenith Minerals [ASX:ZNC] has announced today the appointment of Azure Capital to run a review of its lithium business. Zenith holds multiple projects in WA, which include the Split Rocks and Waratah Well projects.
Azure Capital, the Perth-based corporate advisory firm has also been tasked with finding a strategic investor or a buyer for the two, who would fill the spot vacated by Zenith’s previous joint venture partner, EV Metals Group.
Zenith Minerals Managing Director, Michael Clifford commented:
“We are delighted to appoint Azure Capital as our Corporate Adviser at this important time for the Company. Azure has a very strong track-record advising ASX-listed lithium companies and we believe theywill be an excellent partner for Zenith as we undertake a strategic review of our lithium projects and look to maximise value for shareholders over these high-quality assets.
We have received several unsolicited expressions of interest from potential strategic investors and continue to see significant corporate activity across the lithium sector. Now that the Company has reassumed control of the assets, we will explore these opportunities further with the assistance of Azure”.
Super Retail Group [ASX:SUL] owners of Rebel Sport, Macpac, Supercheap Auto, and BCF have seen its share price jump by 6.60% in this morning’s trading.
The move comes as the group managed record first-half FY24 sales of $2 billion.
Group CEO and Managing Director Anthony Heraghty said today
‘I am pleased to report that Super Retail Group has delivered another record first half sales result. The Group has traded well over the cyber sales and Christmas holiday trading period. We maintained positive like-for-like sales growth in the first half, however cost of living pressures on the consumer did lead to a more constrained retail trading environment at the end of the second quarter.
Despite this, our customer proposition and the resilience of the lifestyle and leisure categories in which we operate underpin our performance in challenging economic conditions where consumers are sharpening their focus on value.’
Good morning. Charlie here
The ASX 200 opened down -0.21 % to 7,482.7, following a mixed session on Friday for Wall St.
Underwhelming big bank results and big drops in airline stocks were blamed for the weaker session in which many US stocks closed flat.
Delta Airlines fell by -8.9% despite a double beat and record quarterly revenue and traffic.
Tesla shares saw a -3.67 % drop as German factory production was put on hold due to the Red Sea supply disruption and Chinese price drops. Watch this space as a huge influx of Chinese cars hits Western markets.
Meanwhile, US markets will be closed tonight as the US prepares to celebrate Martin Luther King Day.
Wall Street: Dow -0.31%, Nasdaq flat, S&P 500 flat.
Overseas: FTSE +0.61%, STOXX +0.85%, Nikkei +1.50%, SSE -0.16%
The Aussie dollar fell -0.03% to US 66.86 cents.
US 10-year bond yields -3bps to 3.94%.
Australian 10-year bond yields -3bps to 4.07%.
Gold flat at US$2,047.86. Silver fell -0.12% to US$23.17.
Bitcoin fell -2.19% to US$41,951. It is now down over -7% since the ETF launch, while Ethereum fell by -3.81% to US$2,483.
Oil Brent rose +0.10% to US$78.32, while WTI Crude rose +1.07% to US$72.79.
Iron ore fell -1.17% to US$137.22 a tonne.
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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