ASX News LIVE | XJO Down as JB-Hi-Fi, Carsales, Aurizon, Ansell, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Report

 

The best performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 5, 10, 15, and 20 years… pic.twitter.com/ktqjz4BVLy

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 13, 2023

The Reserve Bank’s next Board meeting is on the fifth of September.

And the market is overwhelmingly expecting the RBA to hold rates steady at 4.10%.

There’s even a 7% implied probability of an interest rate cut to 3.85%.

Source: ASX

The Aussie dollar (AUD/USD) has traded to a fresh 2023 low at US64.56 cents on Monday as risk-off gloom grips Asian markets on worries about China's ailing property sector. #ausecon #auspol #aud @CommSec https://t.co/HuUEnTClNn

— CommSec (@CommSec) August 14, 2023

I heard an extraordinary comment from author Yuval Noah Harari last week.

He’s the bloke who wrote the best-selling Sapiens book.

You might’ve read it.

It’s basically a brief history of humankind and what makes us, well, ‘human’.

Anyway, recently on the Lex Fridman podcast, Harari had this to say about money:

‘…money is a complete fabrication of the human mind, rarely existing in a physical form anymore yet has become the most powerful structure upon which Homo Sapiens go about existing.

‘Because it is a story, a fabrication, the narrative remains within our control. We get to define the key components of the story: the characters, the journey, the rules and the outcomes.’

It’s worth noting in the same podcast, Harari also said humans would die off in about 100 years!

As someone dryly noted in the comments section about this particular prediction:

‘Short enough time to be scary but long enough to be able to avoid accountability. Brilliant!’

I’m not usually a cynical person, but I tend to agree with this commenter’s take.

It’s the kind of prediction that makes the headlines, but has little downside risk for the predictor.

To me, that’s a warning sign that someone is ‘crafty’ rather than intelligent.

But it’s his ideas on money that I think are more worrying than his doomsday predictions.

Let me explain why…

https://www.moneymorning.com.au/20230814/why-you-need-to-start-paying-attention-to-gold.html

How’s this for guidance?

In a FY24 outlook, Carsales substituted adjectives for numbers.

On a proforma basis, CAR expects to ‘deliver good growth in revenue and EBITDA in FY24’.

On an actual basis, the firm expects to ‘deliver very strong growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA and strong growth in adjusted NPAT in FY24’.

Source: Carsales

For its FY24 outlook, $CAR substituted adjectives for numbers, using the following scale:

– Very strong growth
– Strong growth
– Good growth
– Solid growth$CAR.AX #ASX pic.twitter.com/IuRZPIPp3k

— Fat Tail Daily (@FatTailDaily) August 14, 2023

Carsales said it reached a key milestone with more than 50% of its revenue now coming from outside Australia.

That’s largely thanks to recent acquisitions of Trader Interactive and webmotors.

CAR chief executive Cameron McIntyre said:

‘With the acquisitions of Trader Interactive and webmotors, we reached a key milestone for the business with more than 50% of our revenue now coming from sources outside of Australia. We see a substantial growth opportunity in these large addressable markets continuing over many years to come.

‘The excellent financial performance outcomes we have delivered in a higher interest rate environment underscores the strength of our global brands and the resilience of our business model. Growth came from a number of sources including adding more customers, introducing new products to market and increasing the adoption rates of existing premium products. It was pleasing to see double-digit revenue and earnings growth in all our key markets.’

Carsales [ASX:CAR] is up 5% in early Monday trade after announcing ‘strong FY23 results in a transformational year’.

• Reported revenue up 53% to $781.2 million
• Reported net profit after tax up 301% to $645.6 million

The reported revenue and NPAT does not include the consolidation of Trader Interactive and Web Motors acquisitions.

If you do include the two acquisitions on a proforma basis, the FY23 results present themselves thus:

• Proforma revenue up 18% to $942.2 million
• Proforma EBITDA up 19% to $495.7 million

Honestly, the FY23 results are quite messy and look like a ‘choose your own adventure’ novel.

Choose your own NPAT, source: carsales.com

Catch the latest episode of What’s Not Priced In!

⚠️What's Not Priced In episode #12 is now live⚠️

✅ Disinflation vs deflation
✅ Momentum vs fundamentals
✅ Price vs earnings
✅ China's economic slump
✅ Outlook for commodities
✅ Stagnant #ASX
✅ Mining services stocks https://t.co/O7PQCTu1iO

— Fat Tail Daily (@FatTailDaily) August 11, 2023

Summer air travel, power generation use, and petrochemical activity in China is boosting global oil demand to record highs, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency.

World oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by summer air travel, increased oil use for power generation & surging petrochemical activity in China

With deepening OPEC+ supply cuts, global markets are set to continue tightening through the fall ⬇️ https://t.co/k6shRxYYM4

— International Energy Agency (@IEA) August 11, 2023

In its FY24 guidance, Beach Energy implied production may come in lower than FY23 and FY22.

Beach gave a FY24 production guidance range of 18 to 21 MMboe.

If the lower bound is realised, FY24 production is slated to be ~8% down on FY23.

Source: Beach Energy

The midpoint of guidance implies no change in production year on year.

Beach Energy [ASX:BPT] is down 6.5% in early trade on Monday after divulging its FY23 results.

• Total revenue down 7% to $1.65 billion
• Net profit after tax down 20% to $401 million
• Underlying NPAT down 24% to $385 million
• Despite the drop in profit, BPT doubled its final dividend to 2 cents per share

As for its performance metrics, Beach Energy reported a 11% fall in production on an average realised gas and ethane price of $8.8/GJ, up 9% on FY22.

Souce: Beach Energy